Game Flowbotics: Week 15 Picks Against the Spread

Dec 16, 2021

Photo by Dylan Buell/Getty Images

Week 15 is here and byes are officially over, so we get to dig through a full slate of games to find our favorite bets against the spread. Well, sort of. Yes, we have a full schedule of 16 games, but many of those contests will be adversely affected by the NFL’s recent outbreak of COVID-19 cases. As a result, the pace and efficiency data from Football Outsiders in the Game Flowbotics spreadsheet might mean less in some matchups than in a typical week. So, if a spread or total looks fishy, check the news for potential impacts on coach and player availability. By the same token, if any of my picks below seem strange relative to the current news on teams, remember that I write these articles on Wednesday with limited information. Before we hit the Week 15 best bets, let’s revisit last week’s performance.

Accountability

Last week, I went 3-3 with my picks for a gain of 0.31 units. Year to date, my record is 57-49-1 (53.8%) and I’m up 5.71 units overall. Since Week 10, my record is 19-18. I just can’t seem to break away from a .500 baseline, and it’s beginning to feel tilting. On the bright side, my best bets last week went 3-1, and I’ve generally been good at assigning more confidence to picks in the best bets section. But that begs the question—if my rapid-fire picks are dragging down my overall record, then why make them? The short answer is I enjoy doing the extra analysis, and I want to bring you readers the most content possible. Still, if that content is trending unprofitable, it might be time for a change.

I’m going to stick to standard operating procedure this week and hope to break the trend with sound analysis and picks, but as you’ll see, I only found one rapid-fire pick I like this week anyway. Regardless, when the results are in next week, I’ll revisit this battle between best bets and rapid-fire picks to see if my process needs to change down the stretch of the regular season.