NBA Player Props: Tuesday, December 28th

After roughly three full weeks of constant NBA COVID-19 quarantines, we now have a decent data set that can help guide us in betting player props. We can start to pick up on coaching tendencies and project which NBA players will continue to benefit from the combination of talent with increased opportunity. Tonight brings us a solid slate of eight games, with value plays at each of the five positions. Our NBA Player Prop Tool and NBA Prop Stat Explorer Tool provide critical help in our quest to find betting advantages among the COVID-19 protocols. Make sure to also monitor our Discord activity for any key last-minute updates.

FanDuel Player Prop Bets (December 28th, 2021)

*Lines accurate at the time of publication.

Wendell Carter Jr. Over 10.5 Rebounds (-104)

Wendell Carter Jr. has an advantage over the Bucks on both ends of the floor, regardless of whether he’s guarded by 31-year-old DeMarcus Cousins or Bobby Portis. Carter has raised his per game average by almost two rebounds per game during the month of December. Excluding the game against Miami where he suffered a knee injury, Carter has hit double-digit rebounds in seven of the prior eight games. He has averaged 12.6 rebounds per game during that time. He had 10 rebounds in just 28 minutes in Orlando’s last game against Milwaukee on November 22nd. With point guard Cole Anthony already ruled out with an ankle injury, Carter needs to be the centerpiece of the Magic’s attack against Milwaukee. Orlando is a sizable home underdog, but will need Carter to play substantial minutes because of their COVID-19-induced roster limitations. If Carter can avoid foul trouble, I project him to hit his monthly rebounding average.

Risk: 1.04 units on FanDuel to win 1 unit. (Playable to -110)

DraftKings Player Prop Bets (December 28th, 2021)

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 25.5 Points (-110)

The Bucks enter this game as overwhelming 14-point favorites, providing the perfect opportunity to limit minutes for the Milwaukee superstar. Giannis Antetokounmpo played 30 minutes in his first game out of COVID-19 protocols, a 117-113 comeback home victory over Boston. With two consecutive games in Orlando, this is the ideal spot to keep him in the low-30s again, which provides value at a prop that is less than two points below his seasonal average (27.4 PPG).

Antetokounmpo dominated the Magic for 32 points and 20 rebounds in a 117-108 home win on November 20th. In their subsequent game two days later, Antetokounmpo became more of a facilitator, with only 12 points but nine assists in a 123-92 blowout win. I wanted to back an assist prop for Antetokounmpo, but the juice was around -165 for all 4.5 assist props. Against a decimated Magic roster, just one game removed from the COVID-19 list, I project him to fall under this 25.5-point total. If this game remains close, he likely beats this number. However, I'll take my chances that doesn't happen as 14-point favorites.

Risk: 1.1 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to -120)

De’Aaron Fox Under 29.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-120)

De'Aaron Fox looked shaky in his first game out of COVID-19 protocols. He played a surprising 30 minutes against Memphis and produced just a 12/5/3 stat line. That was even more surprising when you consider starting center Richaun Holmes played just 13 minutes and scored zero points due to foul trouble.

Fox now faces a hot Oklahoma City Thunder team that has won four of their past five games, and that is fifth-best at limiting scoring by opposing point guards. In their first meeting this season, Fox was held to 16/1/5 in 35 minutes. With Thunder shooting guard Josh Giddey just ruled out due to COVID-19 protocols, more scoring chances will open up for Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton, and possibly a showcase spot to entice trade offers for Buddy Hield.

The recent explosion by Haliburton may also have a stifling effect on Fox’s production. It’s only been one game, but I’m betting that trend continues in just his second game back from COVID-19 protocols.

Risk: 1.2 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit. (Playable to -125)

For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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