Fantasy Football Debate: D'Andre Swift vs. Aaron Jones
D'Andre Swift and Aaron Jones are both being drafted in the early second round of Underdog drafts, giving fantasy managers a tough decision between two solid backs. In this debate, Jennifer Eakins goes to bat for Swift while Joe Metz takes the side of Jones.
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The Case for D'Andre Swift
Jennifer: I’ll start this out by saying that I have drafted plenty of Aaron Jones this offseason and plan on continuing to do so, but I also really like D’Andre Swift and for the sake of this article will explain why he’s the better choice at current ADP.
Last season Swift was on pace for a monster campaign before being derailed by a shoulder injury courtesy of fellow Georgia Bulldog Roquan Smith of the Bears in Week 12 on Thanksgiving Day. He led all RBs in both targets and receptions from Weeks 1-11 and posted the seventh-highest half-PPR points at his position in that timeframe. Before being sidelined, his 19 touches per game (13.7 rushes, 5.3 catches) was on pace for 323 on the season, which would have sat fourth in the NFL.
Swift has the potential for a massive ceiling in 2022, as he’s in line to gulp up targets as Jared Goff’s underneath guy. The Lions added a few more pass catchers this offseason in D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams, but Swift's proficiency with the football - he was the RB2 in 2021 in YAC with 500 despite only playing 13 games - should earn him a similar target share to his 18.4% from last year which was second in the league among RBs.
Despite his talent and potential volume, being on a not-so-great team could hold Swift back from breaking into the elite tier of RBs, plus there’s also the fact he sustained injuries in both 2020 and 2021, only clocking in for 13 games in each of his first two years in the NFL.
The good news is that Swift’s ADP is currently in that sweet spot where he has the potential to outproduce it as the RB8 in Underdog drafts, but isn’t too expensive that you feel like you’re reaching for the Detroit back. He’s a solid option in any league with rewards for receptions and if he can remain healthy, could be a monster in production from scrimmage.
As I mentioned earlier, I do like Aaron Jones in this similar ADP range and have selected him myself in many a draft this summer. Both of these backs are pass-catchers which is certainly appealing in an early-round RB.
A few things do set these two apart, the first is their actual offenses. The Packers are a much more efficient offensive machine led by the reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, who will put them in a position to win games every single week. The Packers are currently projected to come out on top in 11 contests in 2022, and if they get up early, Jones could cede some of the work to A.J. Dillon to keep his legs fresher for longer. Second is actual competition, as Dillon is also a threat for vulturing volume on a weekly basis even without being ahead, as they weren’t too far off from each other in 2021, with 14.9 touches per game for Jones to Dillon’s 13.0. Jamaal Williams is not coming for Swift’s work in the Lions' offense as he’s the clear back-up and change-of-pace guy, proven by a 7.2 touch per game difference between the two in Weeks 1-11 last year with Swift healthy.
Swift is currently leaving draft boards as the RB8 with Jones right after him as RB9, both in the early second round. I prefer Swift’s potential workload and efficiency, plus his last name is Swift, what more do you want from an RB?
The Case for Aaron Jones
Joe: It’s not often that you find a player later than Round 1 that has the upside to finish as the top overall scorer of their position. This season, however, we’re lucky to have Aaron Jones. With an ADP of 17.2 on Underdog Fantasy, the masses seem to have forgotten the upside that we’ve seen out of Jones.
Over the last three seasons, Jones has had the opportunity to showcase his skillset in seven games without Davante Adams. Small sample sizes be damned, Jones put up incredibly impressive numbers.
In those games, Jones averaged 23.4 fantasy points per game (0.5 PPR) while logging nearly seven targets per game (6.71) and 122.6 combined rushing and receiving yards per game. These are video game-esque numbers and numbers that put overall RB1 firmly in play. Taking a step back and looking at these numbers historically, Jones joins some incredibly elite company over the last five years.
Only one running back since 2016 has topped 55 receiving yards per game. Why is this number important? In the seven games without Adams, Jones averaged 55.43 receiving yards per game. That running back? Christian McCaffrey in 2019, the season where he finished as the No. 1 overall player in fantasy football. Even if we widen the range of receiving yards per game for running backs, not a ton changes. I dove into this a few weeks ago, finding that there were only four running backs since 2016 who averaged at least 51.4 receiving yards per game (within four yards of Jones’ average without Adams):
👀 Running backs within 4 yards/gm of Jones' 55.43:
2018 - Christian McCaffrey (54.2 RedYds/gm) - RB1
2017 - Todd Gurley (52.5 RecYds/gm) - RB1
2017 - Alvin Kamara (51.6 RecYds/gm) - RB3
2016 - David Johnson (54.9 RecYds/gm) - RB1
*PPR scoring*
🔥 ELITE 🔥— Joe Metz (@JoeMetz34) July 13, 2022
While it’s impossible to guarantee that Jones will see this same level of receiving work across the entirety of a season without Adams, the ceiling is certainly real given the vacated target share and the lack of certainty among the Packers' receiving corps.
The only thing with the potential to cap this ceiling is AJ Dillon and the Packers’ desire to deploy a committee. We saw this in 2021, as Jones saw 53% of the snaps with Dillon playing 39% of the snaps, but it was the high-quality touches where Jones separated himself. Jones posted 47 red-zone touches in 2021, only one more than Dillon (46), but he also played two fewer games than Dillon. Averaging over 3 red-zone touches per game, Jones' 17-game pace of 53 red-zone touches is exactly what you want out of a fantasy football asset.
Stepping in as the unquestioned focal point of the offense with a leg-up in the timeshare, Jones received a new contract in the offseason, only cementing Green Bay’s commitment to the dual-threat running back. Going in the middle of the second round on UnderDog Fantasy, Jones has overall RB1 upside for a discount.
While overall RB1 is in the range of outcome for Jones, it's not something that I am confident enough in with D'Andre Swift to justify taking Swift over Jones. Both players find themselves in a timeshare, but getting Jones in a better offensive system and the track record of dominance in this scenario makes him my choice between two ultra-attractive pieces this season.
