The Training Room: Week 1 Injury Updates
...And here we go. Just like that, after what felt like forever. The NFL season is back, baby! The return to the NFL season also means that fantasy football is alive and well. Unfortunately, that also means injuries are back as well. If you are here reading this, it is likely because someone on your fantasy team got injured. Below I discuss the major injuries that happened this past weekend and some that originated prior the first series of games.
If you are a returning reader, welcome back. If you are new to this weekly series or new to the 4for4 brand all together, then allow me to introduce myself. My name is Adam Hutchison. This is my second year writing for 4for4 discussing player injuries. I am a practicing physical therapist and am rather fond of this fictional football game we played called fantasy football. Each week in my "Training Room" series, I will provide you with information about player injuries to help you make preparations for the rest of the season. If you find this article helpful you might also want to check out the 4for4 Injury Index, which breaks down the most common injuries by position. Some of the data in this article and future articles pulls directly from the Index.
Dak Prescott, QB Dallas Cowboys
Injury: thumb fracture - surgery
Projected Timetable: 6 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Cooper Rush
Initial Thoughts:
Dak Prescott fractured his right thumb late in Sunday night's game. Monday it was confirmed that Prescott had surgery and a return to play timeline of 6-8 weeks was provided. I think there is an opportunity for Prescott to return on the shorter end of that time frame, even though the Cowboys have a bye in 7 weeks. This is reaffirmed by Jerry Jones telling reporters Tuesday that the Dallas QB will not be placed on IR. It is unlikely that the Prescott is ready before 4 weeks but he will want to get back ASAP - thus the projected return prior to Dallas' bye week. A thumb injury like this could affect the Dallas QB's throwing accuracy - similarly to Russell Wilson last season.
Chris Godwin, WR Tampa Bay Buccanneers
Injury: hamstring strain
Projected Timetable: 6 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Russell Gage, Julio Jones
Initial Thoughts:
There were a plethora of hamstring injuries Sunday, none more disappointing the Chris Godwin, who was impressive from the jump in his first game back after ACL reconstruction (ACLR). Godwin's hamstring strain was due to overstretching of the muscle - these types of injuries can take longer to recover from. I think, in some ways, this could be related to his ACLR, as the hamstring provides some muscular reinforcement to the knee in a similar fashion to the ACL. Typically, NFL WRs have been able to return to play in just under 3 weeks following a hamstring strain, but given some of the confounding variables in this situation, it would not be surprising to see Tampa place Godwin on the IR, allowing him enough time to recover and rehab his surgically repaired knee. As a result, I am projecting a longer timeline than the typical 2-3 week return following a hamstring strain.
Keenan Allen, WR Los Angeles Chargers
Injury: hamstring strain
Projected Timetable: 3 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter
Initial Thoughts:
Keenan Allen is also nursing a hamstring strain that ruled him out of the back-half of Sunday's matchup vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. The all-pro wideout has dealt with soft tissue injuries before, but without an indication of the severity, I believe a 3-week projected absence is fair. Since 2017 only 20% of WRs have missed more than 4 weeks with a hamstring strain. As a result, Allen could be back by Week 5. Common sense would suggest that Mike Williams would be in line for a huge target share, but he was only thrown the ball four times (3 of which came after Allen exited). As a result, Joshua Palmer becomes a great target to add, and DeAndre Carter is interesting since he impressed with limited opportunity on Sunday.
Najee Harris, RB Pittsburgh Steelers
Injury: left foot/ankle injury
Projected Timetable: 0 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Jaylen Warren
Initial Thoughts:
During overtime in Sunday’s matchup between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, Najee Harris was unavailable as the RB injured his foot/ankle. This is the same foot Harris injured in the preseason. It is unclear the type of injury Harris is dealing with, but early reports from the Steelers point to Harris being ready to go in Week 2. The data for RBs nursing foot injuries is not great - fantasy production typically suffers. While it looks like Harris will play next week, my concern is that last year, he was not an efficient runner (ranking outside the top 50 in true yards per carry). Combine his rushing woes with a Steeler offensive line that is bottom of the NFL, and you see that a lot of Harris' fantasy value was tied to volume. If the foot injury lingers and eats into Harris’ touches, we could be left with an RB that does not turn value based on where he was selected in fantasy drafts.
Elijah Mitchell, RB San Francisco 49ers
Injury: likely MCL sprain
Projected Timetable: 8 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Jeff Wilson Jr., Jordan Mason
Initial Thoughts:
San Francisco confirmed Monday that Elijah Mitchell is dealing with an MCL sprain and could miss "up to 2 months" with the injury. Based on this information, this appears to be a more serious injury than I originally anticipated. Data suggest that MCL sprains for RBs take ~3 before return to play. The reports on Monday suggest that Mitchell is dealing with a grade-III MCL sprain or tear, and it would not surprise me if surgery was required.
This is not your typical MCL sprain. I’d guess a Grade 3 or complete tear given timeline. https://t.co/G4X8y6vw5f
— Ethan Turner (@ETurnerFF) September 12, 2022
Mitchell is another player that should land on the IR, and my projection is that he would return following the 49er's bye in Week 9. If there is a silver lining, upon return RBs following MCL sprain, their production returns to pre-injury form (near their healthy average of fantasy points per game). In terms of back-ups in San Fran, rookie Tyrion Davis-Price was a healthy scratch Sunday so it would appear the pecking order is Jeff Wilson Jr., Jordan Mason, and Tyrion Davis-Price.
Mac Jones, QB New England Patriots
Injury: back injury
Projected Timetable: 0 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): NA
Initial Thoughts
Despite concern about a serious back injury, Mac Jones was able to finish the weekend matchup with the Miami Dolphins. However, it sounds like all the imaging of Jones' back came back clean, and he avoided any type of fracture. He should be good to go next week. Historically QBs dealing with back injuries have suffered a dip in fantasy production, but this includes a wide variety of injury types. For something like "back spasms," I would expect Jones to be his usual self.
Tee Higgins, WR Cincinnati Bengals
Injury: concussion
Projected Timetable: 0-2 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Tyler Boyd, Mike Thomas
Initial Thoughts
Tee Higgins will have to clear the concussion protocol prior to returning to NFL action. Concussions are highly variable but the average time missed for NFL WRs since 2017 has been a shade under two weeks. Amongst WRs that were able to miss zero weeks with a concussion injury, their fantasy production was unaffected. Should Higgins miss anytime, there could be a brief dip in his fantasy point total.
Zach Wilson, QB New York Jets
Injury: knee bone bruise + arthroscopic procedure
Projected Timetable: 4 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Joe Flacco
Initial Thoughts:
During Week 1 of the NFL preseason, it looked as if Zach Wilson's season was going to be over before it even got started. Luckily the former BYU Cougar avoided a season-ending knee injury and was diagnosed with a meniscus tear (that required an arthroscopic procedure) and a bone bruise. Following a knee scope, a player could return in 2-4 weeks, but the bone bruise has extended that timeline. Originally, I had Wilson projected for Week 3, so Week 4 is along a similar timeline. Flacco should be under center for the next three weeks.
Ken Walker, RB Seattle Seahawks
Injury: hernia surgery
Projected Timetable: 3 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Rashaad Penny
Initial Thoughts:
Ken Walker had surgery this offseason for a hernia. After not practicing all week, the Seahawks had Walker listed as questionable, but there was never really a chance the rookie was going to make his NFL debut in Week 1. Based on averages for skill position players that have dealt with various core muscle injuries in the base, the average time missed was around 5.5 weeks. Based on this, I think a realistic timeline for Walker to return is at Week 3. Keep in mind that hernias can be tricky injuries and are highly variable. This injury is difficult to recover from, especially among rookies. A similar injury type totally derailed then Raven's rookie Reshod Bateman's 2021 season.
George Kittle, TE San Franciso 49ers
Injury: groin strain
Projected Timetable: 2-3 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): Tyler Kroft
Initial Thoughts:
We are still learning about the significance of George Kittle's groin injury, but after he sustained the injury on Monday and did not practice all week, his chances to suiting up Sunday were bleak. There are varying degrees of groin strains - the more severe, the more time missed. It is sounding as if Kittle has a grade-II strain which typically results in a 5 week absence. However, since 2017, the average time missed for NFL teams with a groin strain is ~2 weeks. Additionally, in that same time period, Kittle has returned sooner than the TE average of 80% of the time. This is a player who constantly plays through injury and will do whatever he can to get back soon. I think Week 2/3 is a realistic possibility.
Rondale Moore, WR Arizona Cardinals
Injury: hamstring strain
Projected Timetable: 4 weeks
Potential Replacement(s): A.J. Green, Greg Dortch
Initial Thoughts:
Second-year wideout Rondale Moore likely missed a huge opportunity to impress after he was diagnosed with a hamstring strain this week. With DeAndre Hopkins suspended for the first six games of the 2022 season, there were targets to be had. It sounds like Moore has a significant hamstring injury, as an MRI was required. As I mentioned above, NFL WRs typically miss 3 weeks following a hamstring strain. Given the potentially serious nature of this injury, and with limited information at this time, it sounds like Moore could miss more time.
| Player | Position | Team | Injury | Week of Injury | Projected Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | QB | Dallas | thumb fracture | Week 1 | Week 7 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | Tampa Bay | hamstring strain | Week 1 | Week 7 |
| Najee Harris | RB | Pittsburgh | foot/ankle | Week 1 | Week 2 |
| Elijah Mitchell | RB | San Francisco | MCL sprain | Week 1 | Week 10 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | Los Angeles (C) | hamstring strain | Week 1 | Week 5 |
| Tee Higgins | WR | Cincinnati | concussion | Week 1 | Week 2 |
| Mac Jones | QB | New England | back injury | Week 1 | Week 2 |
| Damien Williams | RB | Atlanta | rib injury | Week 1 | Week 2 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | New Orleans | rib injury | Week 1 | Week 2 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | Kansas City | knee injury | Week 1 | Week 2 |
| Zach Wilson | QB | New York (J) | knee surgery | preseason | Week 4 |
| Ken Walker | RB | Seattle | hernia surgery | preseason | Week 4 |
| George Kittle | TE | San Francisco | groin strain | Week 1 | Week 2 |
| Rondale Moore | WR | Arizona | hamstring strain | Week 1 | Week 5 |
