Week 3 NFL Betting Picks: Team and Game Totals

Sep 22, 2022

Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images

After Week 1 we have a singular data point. After Week 2 we open up the possibility of trends. The goal here is to get ahead of trends as quickly as possible. It's difficult with such a small sample of data, but we should be drawing on a combination of the first two weeks and what we've seen and heard coming into the season about each of these teams. Bookmakers are just as likely to hold on to their priors as we are, so I'll continue to look for ways to leverage that fact as the season progresses.

I will bring you my favorite totals of the week in this space all season long, focusing on what I think is the most significant inefficiency in the market: Individual team totals. Working around key numbers is critical, and focusing on one team or matchup helps eliminate a bit of variance in each bet.

Handicapping NFL sides and totals is not a perfect science, though it gets easier to navigate as the season progresses. The more we can contextualize in-season data and adjust it for the situation and opponent, the better. Whenever possible, lean into situation-adjusted stats over raw counting stats. Utilize metrics like success rate and explosive play rates over total yards and points against. Our Team and Player Stat Explorer tools can help.

The NFL news cycle and player-related updates are relentless this time of year. All of our plays are released through our subscriber Discord. Go to #Role-Assign and turn on "Staff NFL Plays" to receive push notifications whenever a play is released by the 4for4 team. Beyond picks, our betting subscription includes tools that can't be found anywhere else. You can find out more details about everything a betting subscription comes with here.

I pushed in Week 2, going 2-2, and I'm now 6-2 here on the season. Let's dig into Week 3's totals.

*Betting lines are accurate at the time of publication.