SharpClarke's Best Week 6 NFL Bet: ARI @ SEA Matchup Spotlight

This week's matchup spotlight takes us to the Pacific Northwest, where the Seahawks host the Cardinals in a fight for relevance in the NFC West. So far, I have had a good read on both these teams, going 6-0 on spread bets on games involving one of the two. The upstart Seahawks are still not overly respected by the betting markets, installing the 2-3 home team as a short underdog against the 2-3 Cardinals, despite some impressive offensive numbers put up by Geno Smith and company. There is somewhat of a wrestling match between bettors who expect the teams to settle close to prior expectations and those who are believing what they have seen in the first five weeks. Let's dive in and pick a side.

My Numbers

Arizona: 25th (Offense: 18th, Defense: 24th)
Seattle: 16th (Offense: 6th, Defense: 30th)
Baseline: SEA -3 (-105), -133 Moneyline

Matchup Breakdown

SEA Offense vs. ARI Defense

Geno Smith and the Seahawks are my sixth-ranked offense. That is a surprise. It says as much about the rest of the league's offenses as it does about Seattle, but the success so far is not a mirage. Smith is a very smart quarterback. He reads defenses, reacts to pressure, and has been making all the throws. He had two breathtaking passes against New Orleans that extended his hot start. Some are anticipating regression because he's Geno Smith. But given that we have not really seen him in years, and the last time he was a full-time starter he was on a completely dysfunctional offense, I'm trusting what my eyes see.

Specifically, I'm seeing him keep his eyes downfield while navigating the pocket effectively. The Cardinals' defense is all about getting quick pressure via blitzes and forcing quarterbacks into mistakes. I do not think that will work here. It didn't work against Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, or Matthew Stafford. It did work against Baker Mayfield and Jalen Hurts. With two excellent receivers on the outside, I expect Smith to navigate the pressure effectively and make some plays against the holes in coverage. He is playing with a chip on his shoulder and that should continue.

The loss of Rashaad Penny hurts. Their run game was at its best with Penny, mixing in Ken Walker as a change-of-pace. There is a chance Walker, a rookie, misses some blitz pick-ups. But Walker is a solid prospect in his own right and should contribute to this offense. He might be a better receiver. Overall, I think the Seahawks have the firepower to overcome a few mistakes here.

ARI Offense vs. SEA Defense

Unlike the offense, the Seahawks defense has been downright bad. They have struggled in tackling, getting pressure, and in coverage. They have made some plays, and have some playmakers. But they have been inconsistent in every game. Quarterbacks have been able to capitalize against the lapses in coverage and receivers have been able to extend plays after the catch.

A surface-level look at this game would suggest Kyler Murray might have a get-right game against a bad defense. But this is a spot where understanding the quarterback archetypes is really important. Specifically, Murray is the type of quarterback who counterintuitively plays his best football against the toughest defenses. He lacks the ability to diagnose a defense pre-snap and pick it apart with timing throws. His strength comes off-platform, as the play extends beyond the schemes drawn up by the offense and defense. This depends less on the quality of defense and more on his talent winning.

As a result, he has tended to have relatively bad performances throughout his career against the worst defenses. Basically, Murray's Cardinals have put up offensive grades at a similar level regardless of who they play. Having stable offensive production isn't good when you face a team like Seattle. You need to be great. And I think Murray will make mistakes. He will throw a wide receiver screen that the defense has sniffed out. He will throw an interception over the middle because he misdiagnoses coverage. And, particularly in a hostile environment, he will fumble snaps and the offensive line will get penalties. The Cardinals routinely shoot themselves in the foot offensively. This will prevent them from being the methodical offense they need to be to compete with Seattle's high-powered offense.

See the rest of SharpClarke's Week 6 Betting Card

Prediction

The Seahawks move the ball consistently and get some big plays from Smith. And, unlike the Cardinals, they avoid negative plays and hold a lead throughout the game. The Cardinals are live late for a comeback but end up falling short.

Final Score Prediction: SEA 31-24

Market Evaluation

My numbers obviously deviate significantly from the market here, as I have the Seahawks favored by nearly a field goal. That forces me to evaluate why I'm reading this game so differently. But the discourse around Smith and Murray is wrong. Based on what I've seen from Murray in the last few years, and what I've seen from Smith, I think Smith is the better quarterback. They also have home-field advantage and better weapons. I have read and listened to influential bettors who are backing the Cardinals here and I am not missing any angles. It just comes down to how these teams are appraised. The Cardinals' defense has looked better in the last two weeks because they have faced two quarterbacks who do not possess Smith's mental abilities in the passing game. Given that I've watched every snap of every game and graded performance, I feel comfortable with my evaluation.

Best Bets

When I bet this game and gave it out on the 4for4 Discord to subscribers, the line was SEA +3 at -110 odds and the Moneyline was +130. As it stands, the price is mostly SEA +2.5 across the board, but some shops are shading towards +3. Whenever the line is straddling a key number, you never want to pull the trigger on a potentially sub-optimal bet. I would wait to see if a SEA +3 pops up before making the bet, but I'd settle for SEA +2.5 if necessary. For now, I'll use currently-available numbers to identify my favorite bets. As always, shop around for the best number!

SEA Moneyline (+124 at FanDuel)

SEA Team Total Over 24 (-110 at FanDuel)

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