Best Week 6 Prophet Exchange Bets: Eagles Fly Over Cowboys

Week 6 is here. As teams start to show who they really are, we are presented with opportunities on Prophet Exchange to find value on teams previously well-regarded that had less than inspiring performances last week.

As a reminder, Prophet Exchange runs on peer-to-peer betting, so the benefit is passed on to the bettor with more forgiving juice. You can read here for more on the benefits of using a sports betting exchange like Prophet Exchange. Let's see where the value lies in Week 6...

Week 6 Prophet Exchange Picks

Jaguars ML +116 @ Colts

*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from +115 to +116.

Putting too much stock into the first matchup that was certainly on the extreme end of possible outcomes would be foolish considering how both teams have played since. However, the matchup issues are still hard to ignore.

The Colts are dead last in offensive DVOA in both passing and running. The Jaguars boast a defense ranked sixth in DVOA and is a top-10 unit against both the pass and the run. Jonathan Taylor likely returning this week should help the run game, however, he is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry since Week 1. Also of note, Jacksonville is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per carry.

Matt Ryan has clearly not been what Indianapolis thought he would be as a stabilizer and adult to lead the offense. He is also not mobile and the team's offensive line issues have added to the worrying numbers, especially against pressure. When pressured this season, Ryan has a 79.8 QB rating with five touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Jaguars have the eighth-best pressure rate this season while only blitzing at a league-average rate.

The Jaguars' offense comes in off an embarrassing performance against the Texans, only managing six points. Looking at the numbers, Jacksonville moved the ball well with 422 yards of offense but turned the ball over twice and got bogged down in plus territory, going 0-3 in the red zone. Even more for this team, turnover margin matters because they have been able to move the ball when holding onto it.

The Colts defense will not have Kwity Paye to help pressure Trevor Lawrence and Shaquille Leonard’s status is very much up in the air. With giving up 250+ rush yards combined the last two weeks, James Robinson and Travis Etienne may be relied on to dare the Colts to stop the run and take some pressure off of Lawrence.

There seem to be more avenues that lead to a Jaguars win, and getting them at this number provides plenty of value.

Eagles -6.5 vs. Cowboys

*Betting on Prophet Exchange takes the juice from -109 to +100.

The big question heading into the game is the status of Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott after he was upgraded to limited on Thursday. In the first game back where the injury impacts throwing, it feels fair to have slightly lower expectations for Prescott should he play. Otherwise, Cooper Rush has been fine at not getting Dallas in trouble but more will likely be needed against the Eagles, who feature a top-five offense and defense in DVOA.

If Dallas is going to keep the game close, offensively it likely will be because of the running game. The Eagles have been third-best against the pass, per DVOA, but only 20th against the run. Some of that may be game script dependent for Philadelphia as they have faced the second-fewest runs this season and are allowing the sixth-fewest points in the first half, but are allowing 5.0 yards per carry. Dallas will be sure to test the stability of that front seven.

While the Cowboys' pass rush has been fantastic behind Micah Parsons, the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in football and a quarterback in Jalen Hurts adept at avoiding the rush. While facing a couple of very good signal-callers, Dallas has not faced a QB-OL pairing able to handle the rush like the Eagles. At that point, the question becomes is the Cowboys' secondary able to hold up if the front seven is not getting home at the clip they have so far?

The Cowboys are coming off an impressive performance against the Rams and the Eagles had a less-than-inspiring win last week against a middling Cardinals outfit. With the uncertainty at quarterback for Dallas and the form both teams come into the game with, getting the Eagles at less than a touchdown is a play.

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