SharpClarke's Best Week 7 NFL Bet: CHI @ NE Matchup Spotlight

After breaking down why the Seahawks would beat the Cardinals last week as underdogs, this week I am highlighting Monday Night Football for the very exciting matchup between the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears. When the football itself does not project to be exciting, you can still have a reason to watch the game if you have a little money riding on it. Of course, that doesn't mean you should bet every game. But when there is a betting angle available, and the matchup and numbers support it, fire away. Luckily, I think that's the case here. Let's dive into the matchup.

My Numbers

Chicago: 31st (Offense: 18th, Defense: 24th)
New England: 10th (Offense: 29th, Defense: 28th)
Baseline: NE -9.5, -295 Moneyline

Matchup Breakdown

CHI Offense vs. NE Defense

We don't need to get too complicated here. Bill Belichick has routinely punished inexperienced quarterbacks throughout his coaching career, particularly by forcing mistakes by quarterbacks who struggle with diagnosing pressures and reading coverage schemes both before and after the snap. Processing slowly is a death knell against him because he layers coverages and finds ways to put his secondary in positions to read the quarterback's eyes and pounce. Justin Fields is talented with both his legs and his arm. But he simply does not process defenses well or quickly at this stage in his career. This is an ideal matchup for a Patriots defense that has played well in recent weeks.

The Bears will need to run the ball successfully to keep this game within reach. That was the big question mark for the Patriots after surrendering some big numbers on the ground early in the season. But in the past two weeks, they have shut down both the Lions' and Browns' run games. Those are two of the best offensive lines in the NFL, and in the case of the Browns, the best running back in the NFL. This game at home versus Chicago presents a step down in class for this Patriots' defense, especially if they can build a lead and force Chicago to throw the ball. A positive game script will have compounding benefits on the Patriots' defense here.

NE Offense vs. CHI Defense

Speaking of compounding benefits, I expect the game script to also benefit the Patriots. This is a typical smash spot for a team that is at its best when it can run the ball and use play-action off a successful run game. In the last two weeks, the Patriots were able to build a lead against Detroit and Cleveland, and both games ended up as 20+ point wins for the Patriots. This is pretty typical of the Patriots in the last two years because of the way their offense is built. The offensive line is playing well, opening up holes in the run game and giving the quarterbacks plenty of protection. Defenses have to play on their heels, then force extra defenders to the line of scrimmage to stop the run. This opens up single coverage on the outside.

This leads us to the quarterback question. It doesn't matter to me who plays between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. Right now, Jones is a better quarterback. But Zappe appears to have a stronger arm and can match Jones in his vision, constantly working through his progressions and looking downfield. I think Zappe probably has more upside than Jones, but either quarterback can get the job done in the right circumstances. That's what we will have here. The Bears have done an okay job getting pressure without blitzing. But when you don't blitz, you don't force the quarterback into quick decisions. Both Zappe and Jones are good quarterbacks when they have time to process, and they should have time to process here. Of course, if the early game goes how I anticipate, they won't need to do much. They can avoid turnovers, keep drives alive, and convert touchdowns. That's the formula for a big win in this game.

See the rest of SharpClarke's Week 7 Betting Card

Prediction

Obviously, I like the Patriots here. The spread is big, but not big enough considering the matchup advantages. If the Bears can't keep it close early, there are plenty of ways for the game to get out of hand. And the Patriots do not take their foot off the gas. I expect the Patriots to dominate early and late.

Final Score Prediction: NE 34, CHI 10

Market Evaluation

I don't love being so aligned with the market. It feels too easy. But I think the movement from NE -7 to -8 is a good sign that the Patriots are the right side. I would love to see it rise all the way to -10 by kickoff because I anticipate that most bettors will favor New England here. If it stays at -7.5 or -8, that shows support for Chicago. Even if that's the case, I'm comfortable with that because it's obviously a numbers play. The Patriots are not an elite team, and some bettors will bet the underdog no matter what when a non-elite team is laying more than a field goal. Here, I think it's justified by the matchup and so I am comfortable taking the popular side.

Best Bets

NE -7.5 (-110) (Caesars)

Tease NE to -1.5

If you are fortunate enough to still be alive in survivor pools, they make a great survivor play as well.

If you enjoyed this matchup breakdown, you can access all my picks with detailed write-ups for every play with a 4for4.com Betting Subscription. Sign up using the Promo Code SharpClarke for 10% off and get every bet I make in real-time. For the most up-to-date picks check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.