Hoppen to Conclusions: Week 9 Insights and Analysis

Hello and welcome to the Week 9 edition of Hoppen to Conclusions! This is where I, Sam Hoppen, will share some of my favorite charts, which are designed to give you an overview of the NFL landscape. These charts, along with the commentary that I provide, aim to help you make start or sit DFS lineup construction, or any other fantasy football decisions. There can be a lot of noise in fantasy football analysis, but these charts have been carefully selected to give you some of the most relevant and useful decision points.

Each of the charts has been designed in a way that you want to be targeting players and teams that are in the top-right quadrant of the chart as denoted by the dotted black lines, which signify the median value for the stat on either the x-axis or y-axis. Before getting to each of the charts and analyses, here are some brief descriptions of what you will find on each chart and how to interpret them. As you can see, I have also added views on the last four weeks of games.

Note: neutral game-script is defined as plays outside of the two-minute warning with a win probability between 20% and 80% for the offensive team.

• Team Pace and Plays: Compares a team's average plays per game (in regulation only, overtime excluded) to its neutral-script pace, using seconds per play as a measure of pace. On the chart, the y-axis flipped to show faster-paced teams (fewer seconds per play) on top. Simply put, teams (and overall matchups) with more plays and faster pace will offer more opportunities for fantasy point-scoring.
• Team Pass Rates: Compares a team's ps rate over expectation (PROE) to its red-zone pass rate. Here we can identify which teams are passing the most when game script isn't a deciding factor and when they get close to the goal line.
• Running Back Usage: Compares running back snap percent to his high-value touches (carries inside the 10 and receptions), with the size of the player's point as his total opportunities per game.
• Wide Receiver/Tight End Usage: Compares player weighted opportunity rating (WOPR) to his targets per route run (TPRR), with the size of the player's point as his receiver air conversion ratio (RACR). WOPR weights both air yards share and target share to evaluate a player's opportunity, while RACR divides a player's receiving yards by his air yards to evaluate his efficiency in the opportunity he is given. The charts show the same information for both the wide receiver and tight end position.

Team Pace and Plays

• Something has to give when the Los Angeles Chargers fly east to visit the Atlanta Falcons. Two teams on the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to pushing the pace in games. Los Angeles plays with its hair on fire, running a play every 29.1 seconds in neutral scripts, the second-fastest pace in the league. Meanwhile, Atlanta runs a play every 32.2 seconds (27th) despite having a 12.4% no-huddle rate, the 9th-highest rate in the league. Fortunately, this hasn't stifled Atlanta's ability to score points as they currently rank tied for 6th in points per game thanks to having the 6th-highest explosive rush rate. The Chargers' offense had taken a step back before their Week 8 bye, posting totals of just 19 and 23 points with an average of 313 yards in those two games. However, Atlanta's defense offers Los Angeles yet another get-right spot as the second-worst defense in EPA per play and allowing fewer than 21 points in a game just twice this season. I think this game has loads of shootout potential.
  • Action: bet over 49 (-110) on BetMGM
• My candidate for "game I want no part in" this week is a matchup between two former NFC powerhouses, the Los Angeles Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both offenses have been abysmal, with the Rams currently ranking dead last in EPA per play, something nobody saw coming. They are a shell of their former selves and look like they want to get in and out of games as quickly as possible. Their 32.2-second neutral-script pace isn't all that different from their 31.3-second pace this year, but at least they were efficient last year! On the other hand, Tampa Bay has shown some signs of life on offense, but they also rank in the bottom half of the league in EPA per play. Fortunately, Tampa Bay is playing with some tempo and has generated a lot of volume, averaging over 66 plays per game in the last four weeks. Finally, neither of these teams has generated many points in their games, so I'm doing what I can to avoid playing the most obvious of players this week.
  • Action: fade this game in DFS and only start Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cooper Kupp (if healthy)

Team Pass Rates

• The Tennessee Titans have gone full Atlanta Falcons, which makes sense, given Arthur Smith used to coach for the Titans. After starting the season with a -3.8% PROE in the first four weeks, Tennessee has dropped to a -20.7% PROE over their last three games (Tennessee had a bye in Week 6). In those three games, no Titans player has more than 14 total targets (Robert Woods has 14). A large function of this was Malik Willis' first start against the Houston Texans, in which he only threw it ten times, but the Titans were already trending towards being more run-heavy. Subsequently, Derrick Henry is averaging 30 carries per game and has produced at least 27 PPR points in two of those three games (with 16.8 points in the other game). I don't see how anyone outside of Henry (and Dontrell Hilliard as his handcuff) holds any value in the current state of the TItans offense.
  • Action: drop everyone on the Titans except Derrick Henry and Dontrell Hilliard
• The New Orleans Saints have been a bit of a rollercoaster when it comes to their proclivity for passing the ball. In Jameis Winston's three starts, he threw it 33, 40, and 41 times. Then, in Andy Dalton's first two starts, he threw it just 29 and 25 times. But that has risen of late, with New Orleans averaging 38 pass attempts over it's last three contests. This has only been good enough for a -4.9% PROE in those games, as most of their passing has come in comeback efforts against the Bengals and Cardinals. Still, this makes me bullish on Chris Olave (as if I wasn't already). Olave has three games this year with at least 13 targets and only one game since Week 2 with fewer than seven targets. Yes, all of this has been without Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, but the timeline for Thomas' return continues to get pushed out. With a target share below 23% just once this season, I see no signs of Olave slowing down the rest of the season.
  • Action: buy Chris Olave

Running Back Usage

• Ahead of Week 6, Damien Harris suffered a hamstring injury that kept him out of the game. He was expected to miss multiple weeks but returned to action the following week against the Bears in Week 7. However, since Rhamondre Stevenson was given a workhorse role in that Week 6 game (14 carries and five targets on an 86% snap share), it's been StevenSZN in full force. Over the last three weeks, Stevenson has averaged 15.3 carries per game (61.3% of the team's carries), 8.7 high-value touches per game (38.8% of his touches), and seven targets per game. In fact, his 23.1% target share leads the Patriots and is the 3rd-highest among running backs over that span. This is dream-level usage for any running back, especially one on the Patriots. I will caution that Stevenson's snap share has dropped in the last three weeks (87.7% to 80% to 61.3%), which coincides with Harris getting further removed from his hamstring injury and his snap share subsequently rising. I wouldn't be that worried, though, as Stevenson doesn't have a single game below a 55% snap share since Week 2, while Harris has yet to play more than 45% of the team's snaps.
  • Action: buy Rhamondre Stevenson and hold Damien Harris
• The Steelers have been a bit of a disaster from a fantasy perspective, as Pat Freiermuth is the only player who ranks in the top 20 players in fantasy points at his position. But, if you're in a position where you can make some speculative add and hold onto someone, Jaylen Warren is one of the top guys that I'm targeting. In almost every efficiency metric, Warren is performing better than starter Najee Harris. I'm not suggesting that Warren will ever take over Harris' role, but that if Harris were to get injured, he could perform as well, if not better than Harris has. Warren has consistently seen about 25% to 30% of the team's snaps and, while it was a blowout, earned nine opportunities, which were his second-most this season. Again, you won't be starting Warren while Harris is healthy, but Warren is for sure one of the most valuable handcuffs that is widely available right now.
  • Action: add Jaylen Warren

Wide Receiver Usage

• I feel like I write about the Broncos' offense and how gross it is every week, but there's been a recent shift in the Broncos wide receiver totem pole that's worth noting. Courtland Sutton looked like Russell Wilson's favorite target through the first five weeks, with a 28% target share (including double-digit targets in three of those games) and a 39.9% air yards share. This is compared to a stingier 17.7% target share, and 24.9% air yards share for Jerry Jeudy, who was able to see some fantasy production thanks to a pair of receiving touchdowns. But those percentages have essentially flipped over the last three weeks and Sutton has just six catches in those games. Jeudy has an outstanding 2.01 yards per route run since Week 6 and is up to running a route on 91.4% of dropbacks. Still, I think Sutton's perceived value has dropped below his actual value, and with only one touchdown on nine end zone targets so far this season, the scoring is bound to turn in his favor.
  • Action: buy Courtland Sutton and hold Jerry Jeudy
• Not only was PJ Walker the MVP of the XFL (not technically, but real ones know he was), but Walker has also been the MVP of the Panthers the last two weeks, and that's because he's actually making some of the Panthers wide receivers relevant for fantasy. Let's start with DJ Moore, who was buried by a number of analysts after a four-game stretch with just 14 catches and 118 receiving yards. Now, in his last two games, Moore has recorded 13 catches for 221 yards and two touchdowns. Moore's route run percent dropped to a season-low 73.9% in Week 6, but he's run a route on 96.7% of dropbacks the last two weeks - suffice to say he's back to low-end WR2 or high-end WR3 levels right now. The other wide receiver that has come onto the scene is Terrace Marshall, who has run a route on 91.7% of dropbacks the last two games and has earned 12 total targets. He's not a burner by any means, but in an offense currently void of talent, he's worth a speculative add in deeper leagues or if you're struggling for receiving production as he's earned three end zone targets but has failed to convert any of them to touchdown
  • Action: hold DJ Moore and add Terrace Marshall

Tight End Usage

• Earlier this year, I wrote off Dalton Schultz as a solid fantasy option at tight end. I thought I was spot on, especially after two-straight games without a catch, but he has turned it around quickly in the last two games. Schultz has an absurd 3.73 yards per route run over the past two weeks, thanks to his 11 receptions and 123 receiving yards. He also has a 23.5% target share over that span (second on the Cowboys), and with the Cowboys throwing the ball a bit more with Dak back under center, Schultz should have some solid weeks ahead after Dallas returns from their bye.
  • Action: add Dalton Schultz
• Another tight end that has had a solid past couple of weeks after a slow start is Dawson Knox, who has scored in back-to-back weeks. But there is a lot pointing to Knox as a screaming sell and someone you absolutely cannot trust as a reliable tight end option. First, he has yet to record more than four catches or 41 yards in a single game this year. He's also only running a route on 62.6% of dropbacks, which is down significantly from his 2021 rate of 81.5%. His production, along with the production of most tight ends in fantasy, is based on scoring, and now that he's done that a couple of times, it's time to sell.
  • Action: sell Dawson Knox