O-Line Rankings and Matchups to Exploit: Week 10

Nov 09, 2022

Michael Zagaris/San Francisco 49ers/Getty Images

Evaluating offensive line play regarding its effect on fantasy football output has been a stone unturned throughout our game within a game. Here at 4for4, we’re dedicated to looking at fantasy pieces from all angles, and that includes the positive and negative impact an offensive line has on that team’s fantasy assets.

Below I’m going to be digging into specific weekly matchups between offensive lines and the opposing defense's aFPA —one of the many useful tools available to us here at 4for4. Many sites publish raw fantasy points allowed by position, but 4for4 goes a step further and adjusts those numbers for a defense’s relative year-to-date schedule strength. These numbers will continue to strengthen through more data points as the season progresses and when compared to a team’s advantages within the trenches will expose fantasy pieces we may not have otherwise considered.

Editor's Note: Check out the complete set of Week 10 rankings here.

Let’s begin by diving into the passing game to see what o-line/defense match-ups we can exploit.

Favorable Quarterback Matchups

Jaguars @ Chiefs

Through nine weeks of the season, the Kansas City Chiefs have consistently been one of the most giving defenses in the NFL, allowing the fourth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing offenses, including bottom-10 performances to each individual position; QB, RB, WR, and TE. They will need to rely on their pass rush to generate some heat against sophomore quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has taken only two sacks in the past three games combined, opting instead to climb out of the pocket and rack up 71 yards on the ground over that time frame.

With both teams operating at an above-average pace of play and this game currently sitting at a week-high 50.5 over/under, we should be in for a “showcase” game for the Jaguars offense, which presents Christian Kirk an opportunity for a rare WR1 week. At the same time, Zay Jones is an interesting Flex play, while Travis Etienne is a set-it-and-forget-it RB1 workhorse, with James Robinson now out of the way.

Browns @ Dolphins

Jacoby Brissett doesn’t have much longer in the fantasy streets with a certain somebody soon to return from suspension, but he has a chance to go out with a bang here in Miami. The opportunity for a full-fledged shootout is certainly on the table, as mentioned in this week’s Hoppen to Conclusions, Miami's 11.8% explosive pass (15+ yards) rate ranks first, and Cleveland's 7.8% explosive rush (10+ yards) rate ranks third, which could equate the teams trading fireworks back and forth.

While the Browns’ preferred method of ball movement is through the run game, there should still be plenty of meat on the bone in the passing game, where Amari Cooper is a no-brainer start and Donovan Peoples-Jones makes for a great Flex option after accruing 31 targets over the five games before Cleveland’s bye week. Brissett himself makes for a sneaky QB2 start this season with a bit of a rushing floor against this Miami defense that ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate, 26th in pressure rate, and 31st in aFPA to the quarterback position.

Broncos @ Titans

The Denver Broncos offense has been a disappointment, to say the least, and the offensive line hasn’t been as great as I thought they may have been —particularly after center Lloyd Cushenberry landed on IR— but the team has a chance to push things in the right direction coming out of their bye week. While the Titans' defense rank first in adjusted line yards and sixth in aFPA to the running back position, they rank 26th in quarterback aFPA and 32nd in pass rate over expectation. They have officially climbed into the ranks of pass-funnel defenses as (smart) offenses move the ball through the air on them, culminating in the Titans allowing the third-most passing yards per game.

While the Broncos running game has become a stay-away in fantasy terms —further exasperated by this matchup— both Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton should be in your lineups as WR2/3 types, while Greg Dulcich is my favorite tight end to stream this week.

Favorable Defensive Matchups

Cowboys @ Packers

Coming into the season, it was assumed that the Packers’ offensive line was already well on their way to operating as a cohesive, healthy unit, with stud linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins using a full offseason to recover from various injuries. Things haven’t exactly gone according to plan, including Bakhtiari being forced out of the lineup time and time again over the course of the season being knocked out as recently as Sunday with a knee injury that continues to flair up. Fourth-round rookie Zach Tom would fill in at left tackle through the second half of Week 9, and though he did perform admirably, he’s going to have a much more difficult task in Week 10 if he’s forced to man Aaron Rodgers’ blindside.

That difficult task comes in the form of Micah Parsons, who currently leads all edge rushers in Brandon Thorne’s true sack rate, a metric that measures the quality of a sack (i.e., beating an elite offensive lineman for a sack versus simply touching down a quarterback who fell in the backfield). Even worse news for the perpetually banged-up Green Bay o-line; teammates Dorance Armstrong (20th) and DeMarcus Lawrence (30th) also sit inside the top 30 of TSR, adding up to what could be an incredibly annoying day for incessantly annoyed quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

Rams vs. Cardinals

The Cardinals lost a key piece of their offensive line in Week 9 when Will Hernandez was forced out of the game with a pectoral injury. It’s unknown if the former Giants right guard will miss the rest of the season, but he will be out in Week 10, and if his on/off splits this season are any indication, it could be a more significant injury than you would think. Arizona’s offense has now operated without Hernandez for 49 snaps (with 360 snaps “on field”), and the protection metrics are stark; the quarterback is pressured at a 32.7% clip and allows a sack on 14.3% of dropbacks with Hernandez sidelined; compare that to marks of 23.3% and 5.0% with the starter on the field.

The interior was already the weakness of the Cardinals' offensive line, and now they’ll have to scramble to fill in that spot just days before taking on the Aaron Donald-led Rams defensive line.

Favorable Running Back Matchups

49ers vs. Chargers

The 49ers’ offensive line has gelled nicely throughout the season, led by arguably the best lineman in the league, left tackle Trent Williams. This week they will look to impose their will against a Chargers defensive line that will be without pass rusher Joey Bosa and run-stuffer Austin Johnson, both of whom are now on injured reserve. Further exasperating this matchup is the recent addition of Christian McCaffrey, who has turned his first 37 opportunities (carries plus targets) as a 49er into 211 total yards (5.70 yards per opportunity) and two touchdowns. What makes those numbers even more terrifying is the fact that he was only in on 22 snaps during his first week, mere days after being traded for.

The ceiling is so high with this rushing offense this week that you can consider Elijah Mitchell as a desperation Flex play in his first game back from the IR, as 10-12 touches could very easily equate to an RB3-type of game.

Buccaneers vs. Seahawks

The Buccaneers, their offensive line, and Leonard Fournette have been nothing short of a disappointment. Fournette is back to his old ways, creating next to nothing outside of what is blocked for him, averaging 2.24 yards after contact per attempt, which ranks 51st out of 54 qualifying running backs after ranking 21st/61 last season. Maybe it’s simply the devil we don’t know, but with Rachaad White beginning to see a slight uptick in usage, maybe we could get Playoff Lenny a little rest to see what the rookie can do with Tom Brady and the boys.

This would be a prime week to find out against a Seahawks team that allows the sixth-most rushing yards per game and currently ranks 22nd in aFPA to the running back position. Though Fournette is having maybe his worst season of an already-tumultuous career, he needs to be consoled on the sideline by his rookie teammate, which further raises red flags as to where he stands at the moment. For those who want to be ahead of the curve, it may be Rachaad White time sooner rather than later.

Running Backs with Bad Matchups

As opposed to breaking down every bad match-up through the rest of the slate, here are some running backs I’m looking to avoid because of their poor offensive line and/or the strong defensive fronts they will be facing: