Week 13 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Candidates: Quarterbacks
Wondering whom to start and sit at quarterback this week? Below are two top-notch start and two sit options at the quarterback position for Week 13 of the 2022 NFL season.
Week 12 Review – half-PPR scoring
Starts
- QB Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Las Vegas Raiders – 20.32 fantasy points (QB11)
- QB Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) vs. Houston Texans – 15.96 fantasy points (QB18)
Sits
- QB Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) @ Carolina Panthers – 8.48 fantasy points (QB33)
- QB Davis Mills (Houston Texans) @ Miami Dolphins – 0.0 fantasy points (N/A)
Quarterback – Starts
Mike White (New York Jets) @ Minnesota Vikings
New York Jets head coach Robert Saleh benched second-year quarterback Zach Wilson in favor of quasi-journeyman and part-time 2021 breakout Mike White, who propelled New York to a dominant 31-10 win over the Chicago Bears. The table below ranks White’s Week 12 performance in parentheses among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 10 dropbacks. The data comes from 4for4’s NFL Player Stats Explorer.
| NFL QB Data - Week 12 | Completion % | Pass Yards per Att. | TD % - INT % | On-Target % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike White | 78.6% (No. 2) | 11.25 (No. 1) | 10.7% (No. 2) - 0.0% (T-No. 1) | 78.6% (No. 4) |
The Minnesota Vikings are allowing a league-high 273.1 passing yards per game and their 10.9% explosive pass plays allowed rate is second highest, per 4for4’s NFL Team Stats Explorer.
Minnesota’s 19.1 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks is the fifth-highest average in the NFL, per 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed or aFPA.
Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars) @ Detroit Lions
The Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions game boasts a 51.5-point over/under, the highest totaled game on the week.
Jacksonville’s second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence has found his NFL footing over Jacksonville’s last three games. The table below ranks Lawrence among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks during that span. “CPOE” stands for Completion Percentage Over Expectation.
| NFL QB Data - Weeks 9-12 | Pass Yards per Game | TD% - INT % | CPOE On-Target % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 271.7 (No. 6) | 5.6% (No. 11) - 0.0% (T-No. 1) | 11.2% (No. 1) - 83.3% (No. 1) |
Though Lawrence is averaging 2.0 scrambles and 3.7 total rush attempts per game and his 7.4 yards per carry offers dynamic, dual-threat upside.
Detroit’s 22.2 fantasy points allowed per game to opposing quarterbacks lead the league by a 0.5-point margin. Their fantasy-friendly nature comes by way of 260.1 passing yards allowed per game (the fourth-most) and league-highs in both explosive pass plays allowed rate (11.2%) and total points allowed per game (28.2).
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) @ Chicago Bears
Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers gets his favorite opponent this week; the Chicago Bears. The table below shows Rodgers’ overall production dating back through the 2020-2021 season.
| Aaron Rodgers vs. CHI | Comp. % | Pass Yards - TD - INT | Rush Att. - Yards - TD - Fum. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 2, 2020 | 76.00% | 234 - 2 - 0 | 5 - 10 - 0 - 1 |
| Week 14, 2021 | 78.38% | 341 - 4 - 0 | 1 - 0 - 0 - 1 |
| Week 6, 2021 | 73.91% | 195 - 2 - 0 | 7 - 19 - 1 - 0 |
| Week 17, 2020 | 79.17% | 240 - 4 - 0 | 1 - 4 - 0 - 0 |
| Week 12, 2020 | 72.41% | 211 - 4 - 0 | 2 - 12 - 0 - 0 |
Rodgers has not thrown an interception against Chicago since 2018 and loves hogging the ball in scoring position.
Green Bay has a helpful 23.75-point implied team total and Chicago is allowing 19.5 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, the third most in the NFL.
Despite playing much of the year with both left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle Elgton Jenkins playing injured, Green Bay has limited opposing pass rush units to a 16.9% quarterback pressure rate, the eighth-lowest rate in the league. Chicago’s 16.6% quarterback pressure rate ranks fifth worst.
Green Bay’s 8.7% explosive pass play rate (tied for 10th best) pairs perfectly with Chicago’s 8.7% explosive pass plays allowed rate (tied for 10th highest).
*Check out the full QB rankings here.
Quarterback – Sits
Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings) vs. New York Jets
Though Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins has had a great year, he is too tough to trust against the New York Jets in Week 13.
New York is allowing just 11.4 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, the third-fewest in the league.
Minnesota left tackle Christian Darrisaw was unable to practice last week due to a concussion and is far from a lock to play in Week 13, as many players miss more than one game with brain injuries.
The table below ranks New York’s defensive data in parentheses among NFL teams.
| NFL Defense | QB Pressure % | Pass Yards Allowed per Game | Expl. Pass Plays All. Per Gm. % | Points Allowed per Game | INT per Drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 21.8% (No. 11) | 197.5 (No. 8) | 6.6% (No. 4) | 17.8 (No. 5) | 0.1 (T-No. 4) |
