NBA Player Prop Bets: Fin

Apr 09, 2023

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We made it. The final day of the regular season is upon us with a mammoth 15-game NBA slate. Most teams are locked into their seed, play-in position, or eliminated from contention, so a massive amount of players are resting today. This will open up opportunities across the board, but also delay books when it comes to releasing prop lines. From what is available early this Easter morning, I have outlined my three favorite player props today.

Regarding the process behind the plays, the suite of tools that 4for4 offers are second-to-none. I use the NBA Splits Tool to break down injury impacts and lineup changes and the NBA Prop Stat Explorer to look at historical data for how the player performs relative to their prop and compare it to our in-house projection. Using these alongside the Player Prop Finder to shop for the best line, 4for4 makes betting on NBA player props a stress-free and fun process.

Now, let’s put the tools to use and get to today’s top player props.

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Today’s NBA Player Prop Bets (April 9, 2023)

Shake Milton Over 15.5 Points (-125 at DraftKings)

The Sixers are sitting the masses with no incentive to play in the last game, as James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, Joel Embiid, PJ Tucker, De’Anthony Melton, and Tobias Harris have all been ruled out. This should result in Shake Milton leading the offense and playing as many minutes as he can handle.

While we don’t have a lot of concrete data in this exact scenario, we can piece together data points to assist our process here. On a per-36-minute basis this season, Milton has averaged 14.5 points on 11.5 shots per game. These may feel underwhelming, but remember, these rates are pulled from games with the aforementioned players active.

With those players off the floor this season, Milton has led the team in minutes (74.6) with a 22.5% usage rate. We got a glimpse of the ceiling in their last game, as Milton attempted 22 shots in his 43 minutes against the Hawks, finishing with 15 points (31.8% FG%). The bad? He only shot 31.8% from the field. The good? He shot 22 times, free to do anything he wanted.

This is a pure volume play against a Nets defense that has disappointed this season. At 15.5 points, I’m banking on the sheer volume to continue and the efficiency to regress back to the norm (47.6% on the season).

Risk: 1.25 units on DraftKings to win 1 unit.