Russell Wilson's 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook: Redemption or Decline?

After a disappointing first season in Denver, can Russell Wilson turn things around in 2023? Or will his performance continue to decline? The "let's ride" fiasco and his performance on the field provided plenty of opportunities for people to pile on. There are only two options from there; a redemption story or a continued decline. Is Sean Payton going to be the difference maker or did he come back to the NFL for nothing?

Let's explore Wilson's fantasy football outlook for 2023.

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Analyzing Wilson’s ADP Decline

NFL Twitter, and fantasy content in general, can be a bit of an echo chamber at times. ADP certainly isn’t perfect. But even this early in the season it is at least directionally correct. With Wilson sitting down as QB18 in Underdog drafts at about pick 130, the fall has been massive. Historically, he’s been picked about four rounds earlier than he’s going right now. It shows where we are on him as a community this year.

Understanding Wilson’s Scoring Profile

As the great Ben Franklin once said “In this world, nothing is certain except death, taxes, and deep ball regression”. Alright, so I added the last part. But, you get the point. Deep ball regression is inevitable over a long enough time horizon. Heading into last season, Wilson was Top 5 in intended air yards (IAY) for 4-of-5 seasons. He fell out of the Top 10 in 2022. Wilson was also 15th in air yards to the sticks. Meaning, he wasn’t pushing the ball down the field. There’s a whole host of reasons that could be causing that. The scheme, declining ability, and offensive line, among other reasons. The larger issue was that he coupled throwing deep less often with throwing short passes poorly. Not the best combination, if you ask me. So, is that the exception or the rule?

Denver Broncos Offensive Outlook for 2023

The team is not lacking in weapons at the skill positions but their collective ADP shows how we feel about them at this stage in the offseason.

Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, in theory at least, are a solid tandem as pass-catchers. All of the sportsbooks have the Broncos win total set at 8.5. That would seem to imply that they’ll be in most of their games this season. If they’re able to be competitive, that should allow Sean Payton and Russell Wilson the freedom to do what they want from a philosophical perspective.

What to do with Russell Wilson on Underdog

This is a frustrating situation we’re in with Mr. Unlimited. The performance is down, the ADP is down, and yet…I find myself very tempted by him in drafts. Our projections have him at QB15 which would technically be outpacing his current ADP. By the point in the draft that you need to take him, he’s not going to be your QB1 that you’re relying on week in and week out. The other advantage to drafting him is that he’s quite stackable. It’s hard to imagine a spread-out target tree. If you can squeeze in some Wilson-Jeudy-Sutton teams with an elite QB build, it could pay dividends.

Key Takeaways

Russell Wilson is not the quarterback he used to be, obviously. There’s potential for him to sneak his into a low-end QB1 finish, despite his potential decline. If 2022 was just a blip on the radar, then you’ll be making out even better than we expect. When drafting him consider the following plans:

• Draft three cheap QBs and make sure at least one of Jeudy or Sutton is on the team.
• Draft the double stack along with an elite quarterback earlier in the draft so you can take advantage of the spike weeks.