Despite Career Highs Last Year, Zay Jones Has a Limited Fantasy Football Ceiling in 2023

Before being drafted into the NFL, Zay Jones was a record-setting receiver in college. Jones played for East Carolina and holds the NCAA Division I record for career and single-season receptions, with 399 and 158 respectively. After being drafted in the Buffalo Bills' second round of the 2017 NFL Draft, he was traded and played for the Las Vegas Raiders from 2019 to 2021. A year later, he joined the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In his NFL career, he has 253 receptions, 2,707 receiving yards, an average of 10.7 yards per reception, and 16 receiving touchdowns as of the end of 2022. In the 2022 season alone, Jones recorded 82 receptions, 823 receiving yards, and five touchdowns, with an average of 10.0 yards per reception. These were the highest season totals he'd recorded in terms of receptions, targets, and yards.

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And yet, he is being drafted as WR55, according to our Underdog ADP tool, and WR65 in our Multi-Site version. He isn’t even the highest-drafted “Zay” in drafts this season. We’ll take a look at the outlook for the Jaguars as a whole and see why his ADP isn’t reflecting his career-high output in 2022.

Zay Jones and the 2022 Jaguars

Jones saw the second-most snaps of receivers in Jacksonville last year. They had a relatively healthy receiver room with three wideouts seeing at least 66% of the team’s snaps and only five total receivers seeing the field.

Even with that snap count, Jones trailed Christian Kirk in every meaningful receiving statistic while being outscored 199.9 to 157.1 in half-PPR formats.

They were career numbers but Jones wasn’t particularly efficient with the volume that he received. Of the 33 wide receivers who saw 100+ targets, Jones was 28th in yards per route run and 29th in receiving yards per game.

Zay Jones was nearly three fantasy points worse per game than we’d expect given the nature of his targets and where he was targeted on the field. As you can see, everyone not named Jamal Agnew fell under expectations. We can point at least some of the blame at Trevor Lawrence, but Jones certainly played a role, too.

Inefficiencies aside, we’re still looking at a receiver that finished with the 32nd most PPR Points in the NFL. So, why the discrepancy between his end-year ranking and his current ADP?

How Does Jones Fit into the Jaguars New Look Offense?

The addition of Calvin Ridley to the team is the main reason for the aforementioned discrepancy. There’s simply not enough to go around for Kirk, Jones, and Ridley to all produce at fantasy-relevant levels. We haven’t even mentioned Evan Engram who finished as the TE9 last year. Or Travis Etienne, who was one of 29 running backs to earn 40+ targets. He was dynamic after the catch, ranking second in that group of running backs in yards after catch per reception.

The Jaguars had solid weapons before Ridley arrived, but his presence gives some relevance to the potential breakout of this offense. They were productive last year but the weapons on the team weren’t void of question marks. Outside of the suspension, Ridley has been exactly as advertised in his career. He’s an exceptional route-runner and has plenty of big-play upside.

If Ridley slots right in as WR1, which we’re assuming he will, that bumps Zay Jones down the depth chart. The WR3 in Jacksonville last year, Marvin Jones, only saw a 14.5% target share. If we were to project a similar offensive year for the team and for Zay’s efficiency issues to continue, we’re looking at a significant drop-off in production. A season with somewhere around 80 targets at last year’s 1.6 fantasy points per target rate would wind up with 128 PPR points. That would’ve been WR52 on the year last season.

Analyzing Jones’ ADP

Zay Jones’ ADP exemplifies the uncertainty surrounding his role in the new-look Jacksonville offense. He is in a similar, unsettled situation as all three receivers going in the 10th round with him on Underdog.

Skyy Moore has been disappointing and it remains to be seen if he can truly earn the targets necessary to be fantasy-relevant. Odell Beckham is returning from a year off and is joining a new system. Allen Lazard is joining a new team with his old quarterback.

That round of wide receivers represents a pretty clear tier break. A bit of an aside, but it’s also worth noting that at that point in drafts, I’m usually pretty set on receivers. Structurally, I’m more likely to be taking shots at potential running back breakouts than adding to my wide receiver group.

Without an injury ahead of him, Jones is unlikely to put up a performance this year that would get you excited to start him on a weekly basis. He’s firmly on that WR4/5 fringe.

Conclusions

• Despite his career-high output in 2022, he is being drafted as WR57 this year on Underdog and WR65 in redraft leagues. He appears to be the odd man out of what could be a potentially exciting offense in 2023. He’s firmly behind Ridley, Kirk, Etienne, and potentially Engram in the pecking order on offense.
• Despite seeing the second-most snaps among Jacksonville receivers last year, Zay Jones lagged behind Christian Kirk in all significant receiving statistics and was inefficient with his volume.
• Zay Jones' Average Draft Position (ADP) reflects the uncertainty about his role in the revamped Jacksonville offense, and despite being in similar situations as other receivers drafted in the 10th round, his potential for a breakout
• His ceiling is limited without an injury ahead of him, making him a fringe candidate for the WR4/5 position.
• In redrafts, I’m avoiding him for structural reasons but also because there are some upside wide receiver candidates that can still be had later in the draft.