Fantasy Football Debate: Travis Kelce vs. Cooper Kupp
A pair of elite over-30 pass-catchers are being drafted as the fantasy TE1 and WR3, respectively, according to our powerful Multi-Site ADP tool. In this debate, Dave Stewart argues for Travis Kelce while Brandon Niles pounds the table for Cooper Kupp.
Read other player-specific analyses from the 4for4 staff: Player Profiles | More Debates | Half-PPR Expert Mock
The Case for Travis Kelce
Dave: When it comes to debating Cooper Kupp versus Travis Kelce, my first thought is why wouldn’t you choose Kelce? Kupp is an incredible fantasy asset, but Kelce is truly one of a kind. Let me explain why I think Kelce makes the most sense.
Both players are going to be selected near the top of fantasy drafts. According to 4for4's Multi-Site ADP, Kupp is chosen fifth overall with Kelce immediately behind him at 1.06. Given the track record of both players, this is no surprise.
However, Kupp is returning from an ankle injury that ended his 2022 season and required surgery to repair. Kelce is coming off the best season of his illustrious career. Last year, he had his highest reception total to date (110). His 1,338 yards were the second-highest of his career. He also set a career-high with 12 touchdowns. Only Davante Adams scored more receiving touchdowns last season.
Kelce led Kansas City with a 24.9% target share, per 4for4's NFL Player Stat Explorer. He led the NFL in yards after the catch (YAC) with 648. Justin Jefferson finished second in the category with 613. Kelce also led the NFL in red zone targets with 28, according to Player Profiler. He was first among tight ends in routes run and will likely repeat that feat in 2023.
Despite winning the Super Bowl last season, Kansas City has some uncertainty at running back and wide receiver. The team’s top wide receiver in 2022, JuJu Smith-Schuster, is now in New England. The only addition to the receiver room is second rounder, Rashee Rice, who is not currently projected as a starter. The Chiefs’ leading rusher, Isiah Pacheco, is recovering from offseason surgery and has yet to be cleared for contact. Kelce remains a lock to lead the team in yards from scrimmage for a second consecutive year.
Kelce also has the luxury of playing with arguably the top quarterback in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes. By contrast, Rams quarterback, Matthew Stafford, is coming off his worst season since his injury-riddled 2010 campaign. Kupp faces stiffer competition for touches in running back Cam Akers and tight end Tyler Higbee. Akers had the best season of his young career last year and Higbee finished as a top-10 fantasy tight end. Kupp will still get his, but there are more mouths to feed in the Rams’ offense.
With Kelce performing at the highest level of his future Hall of Fame career, he is—without a doubt—one of the most valuable fantasy assets. Plus, he is as durable as they come, having played at least 15 games per season in each of the last eight years. He has logged seven consecutive seasons of 1,000+ yards, topping 1,125 in six of them. Kelce also has a hunger for the end zone with 32 touchdowns in his last three seasons.
Considering this consistency, it is quite likely he does it again this season. Kansas City scored the most points per game in the NFL last season while the Rams ranked 27th. Give me the top weapon in the league’s top offense. Kelce will shine again in 2023.
The Case for Cooper Kupp
Brandon: We all know Cooper Kupp was good in 2021, but it’s easy to gloss over just how good he was. He won the triple crown for a WR (leading the league in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns) with a ridiculous stat line of 145-19,47-16. That’s the second-most receptions and second-most receiving yards in a single season of all time. He capped off his historical season by winning the AP Offensive Player of the Year award. He was also the Super Bowl MVP after catching eight balls for 92 yards and a touchdown in the Rams’ win over the Bengals.
Kupp was limited to just nine games last year in what was a lost season for the Rams following their Super Bowl victory. Still, he was averaging 8.3 receptions, 90.2 yards, and 0.67 touchdowns per game, despite the team being just 3-6 in that span behind a hobbled quarterback. Per our powerful Fantasy Points Browser tool, Kupp was the WR4 in half-PPR leagues when he went down with an ankle injury. Matthew Stafford went into last season with an elbow injury before finally being shut down for the season after nine games with a spinal cord contusion.
Heading into 2023, the Rams look to bounce back behind a healthier season from their QB-WR star tandem. Kupp should pick up right where he left off, with his ankle feeling good. Our own Adam Hutchison expressed no concerns over Kupp bouncing back from his injury on a recent episode of The Most Accurate Podcast (27:40 timestamp), saying “I don’t have any data points that suggest that should be a lingering thing heading into next season,” so fantasy managers can rest easy about his recovery. Sports Illustrated reported he and Stafford are already “clicking” in training camp and as long as there isn’t a setback for Stafford, Kupp should be considered a lock for triple-digit receptions again this season. The hamstring injury in camp is a little more concerning, but until the Rams say otherwise, it appears he should be ready for the start of the season.
We have Kupp ranked second among our wide receivers behind Justin Jefferson and he’ll cost a premium pick if you want to draft him. His ADP is currently 1.05, going as the WR3 off the board behind Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. I’m comfortable taking him as high as second overall.
With Travis Kelce, you certainly know what you’re getting. He’s the best tight end in the league and it’s not particularly close. Over just the last five years, Kelce has finished as the overall TE1 in four seasons (was the TE2 in 2021) and scored an average of 43.6 Half-PPR points more than the next-place finisher. In 2020, he finished a ridiculous 107.7 points higher than the third-place tight end! There’s no denying Kelce’s dominance at the position.
Still, pulling the trigger on a tight end in the first round (especially at 1.06, where his ADP sits) is a daunting task. The steep drop in our projections from Kelce to Mark Andrews is just 27 points, although there’s a significant 58-point drop to T.J. Hockenson, our third-ranked tight end. That’s shocking, but there’s also a significant drop in expected production from Kupp to the rest of the wide receivers. We have Kupp projected for 275 points, with Chase at 237, and the fourth-ranked receiver Tyreek Hill with 50 fewer projected points at 225.
The difference here is the rest of your roster build. If you forego a talent like Kupp at a premium position, you’re scrambling to find receivers later in the draft. Let’s say you want to go after an elite tight end. Andrews was the TE1 in 2021 and he’s available in the middle of the third round. You could take Kupp in the first and prioritize Andrews in the third round.
Conversely, if you make Kelce your mid-first-round pick, regardless of who you take in the second round, you’re looking at players like Tee Higgins and DK Metcalf as third-round receivers. Getting the TE2 at that point to pair with Kupp is easily more appealing to me than pairing the WR14 or so with Kelce. That’s if you even want to invest a premium pick in a tight end. There are only 25 projected points separating our TE6 (Dallas Goedert, ADP of 5.09) and our TE13 (Greg Dulcich, ADP of 11.03). While those are significantly lower options than Kelce, I’d much rather be shoring up the tight end position while nearing double-digit rounds than scrambling for available wide receivers (looking at guys like Courtland Sutton and Odell Beckham in the 10th round).
I love Kelce and if he somehow slips to the second round, I’m interested. But if the question is Kelce or an elite wide receiver like Cooper Kupp, it’s no contest for me. Kupp all the way.
