Week 1 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Pick Advice (2023)
This article was written by PoolGenius, who will provide 4for4 readers with NFL survivor pick and NFL pick'em pool advice for Week 1 2023, and the next three weeks.
The 2023 NFL Week 1 schedule features top matchups, old faces in new places (like QB Aaron Rodgers in New York and head coach Sean Payton in Denver), and some new coaches and rookie quarterbacks making their debut. Some of these situations will undoubtedly factor into your decision-making for Week 1 survivor pool picks and pick'em contest picks.
In this article, we first break down five teams that you're probably considering for your Week 1 survivor pick (or picks, if you're playing multiple entries), such as Baltimore, Washington, and Minnesota. Then, we highlight several teams, like Denver and New England, that could factor into a value-driven Week 1 pick strategy in NFL pick'em contests.
Note: Data in this post is accurate as of Monday, September 4th at 6:30 pm ET.
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Week 1 NFL Survivor Pick Analysis
While pick'em contest players have a full season of picks ahead of them in 2023, survivor players know that every pick they make could be their last. Getting eliminated in Week 1 is a very real probability every year.
While you'll never be able to take all the risk out of your Week 1 survivor pick, you can use data to identify the most advantageous pick to make in the quest to eventually win your pool. This analysis needs to consider the "holy trinity" of survivor pool pick strategy:
- Win odds (how likely a team is to win, especially compared to other options)
- Pick popularity (the percentage of opponents you expect to pick that team)
- Future value (how useful that team should be as a future week pick)
Both win odds and pick popularity factor into a metric called Expected Value ("EV" for short), which assesses the risk-vs.-reward tradeoff of picking a team in a survivor pool. In terms of your odds of winning your pool, making a positive EV pick is good, and making a negative EV pick is bad.
Below, we break down the five most popular survivor picks for Week 1, reviewing some of their pros and cons according to the holy trinity data and EV.
(If you're looking for even more survivor pool strategy, check out the recent special episode of the 4for4 Bets Podcast, where Jason from PoolGenius discusses tips for playing in survivor pools with 4for4's Connor Allen and Jennifer Eakins.)
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Houston Texans)
Point Spread: -10
Win Odds: 79% (1st)
Pick Popularity: 32% (1st)
Future Value: 7th
PROS: Baltimore is the biggest favorite of Week 1, which means they are your safest option to survive the week. Somewhat surprisingly, the Ravens are also a +EV survivor pick this week, because of both their relative safety over the next-safest option, and the total percentage of entries making riskier picks in Week 1.
CONS: Pick popularity above 30% keeps Baltimore's EV from getting very high, so even though they are +EV, they are not a homerun value play. The Ravens also have some potentially valuable spots coming up as a survivor pick, including Week 3 (Colts), Week 8 (at Cardinals) and Week 14 (Rams).
Washington Commanders (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
Point Spread: -7
Win Odds: 71% (3rd)
Popularity: 21% (2nd)
Future Value: 28th
PROS: Washington has essentially no future value in survivor pools, as we currently project the Commanders as a favorite (and a small one, at that) in only one more week in 2023. They also have fairly high win odds in Week 1 for a team with very low future value.
CONS: Washington's pick popularity has been rising, and as it goes up, the Commanders can cross into the negative-EV zone. That doesn't mean they're an instant avoid in Week 1, because the future value angle could still offset slightly negative EV, especially in larger survivor pools expected to last the entire 2023 season.
With that said, our models are a bit down on Washington's win odds relative to the betting market this week, and they have more high-variance factors (a QB with one career start, going against a team with a new coach and an uncertain QB situation) than a typical touchdown favorite.
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Point Spread: -5.5
Win Odds: 69% (5th)
Popularity: 13% (3rd)
Future Value: 21st
PROS: Minnesota has low future value—maybe not quite as low as Washington, but this Week 1 matchup features the highest win odds we currently project for the Vikings for the entire 2023 season. So if the pick popularity gap between Minnesota and Washington continues to grow, the Vikings could present decent contrarian value.
CONS: Moderately high pick popularity and only the fifth-highest win odds of Week 1 mean that the Vikings are merely an average EV pick right now. But it's worth watching how win odds and pick popularity may shift as game day approaches.
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Detroit Lions)
Point Spread: -7
Win Odds: 75% (2nd)
Popularity: 10% (4th)
Future Value: 1st
PROS: Kansas City's relatively high win odds for Week 1, plus the fact that several other teams with similar or lower win odds have higher pick popularity, make the Chiefs the highest EV survivor pick of Week 1. A bonus mental plus is that if you pick KC and they win on Thursday, you get to sit back on Sunday and watch the other Week 1 games while rooting for chaos.
CONS: The Chiefs project to have the highest future value of any NFL team in 2023 survivor pools, which means there should be several potentially high-value spots like this one ahead. We currently project Kansas City to have similar or higher win odds in five future weeks, and to have win odds above 65% in nine total weeks. So there's a big future value price to pay if you take the Chiefs in Week 1.
Jacksonville Jaguars (at Indianapolis Colts)
Point Spread: -5
Win Odds: 70% (4th)
Popularity: 6% (5th)
Future Value: 8th
PROS: Jacksonville's lower pick popularity than other teams with similar win odds gives the Jaguars +EV potential in Week 1.
CONS: The Jags have decent future value in 2023. While there is no clear spot where they look like the "must-pick" team in a specific future week, they currently appear to be worthy of consideration in at least six different weeks, thanks to getting to play AFC South division rivals and the NFC South this year.
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Week 1 NFL Pick'em Pool Analysis
Let’s turn our attention to Week 1 value picks to consider in game-winner-based NFL pick'em contests. As in survivor pools, win odds and pick popularity play a driving role in maximizing your edge in pick'em pools, while the concept of future value no longer applies.
Before we get to the picks, though, one very important note. We’re not suggesting that you make all of the picks listed below (especially the upset picks), because optimal pick'em pool strategy involves balancing risk with value.
For example, if you're playing in a season-long pick'em contest against only 20 or 30 other entries, your best pick strategy is almost certainly to focus on favorites in the early going and avoid the temptation to get too cute with upset picks.
In smaller pools, you can usually identify a sufficient number of value pick opportunities (such as picking favorites being underrated by the public, and unpopular sides in toss-up games) that don't require you to take on much (or any) extra risk. Stay conservative and let your opponents shoot themselves in the foot picking risky upsets in the early weeks.
If you need to beat 2,000 other entries, however, or if you're in a sizable weekly prize pool that resets after each week, your optimal pick strategy will usually call for making more calculated gambles on riskier contrarian picks, and hoping they come through.
The best approach all depends on factors such as your pick'em pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining in the pool.
With all that said, here are the Week 1 picks for game-winner-based NFL pick'em pools that provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your entry, by taking on only a modest amount of incremental risk—or no additional risk at all.
Our Favorite Favorite
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Houston Texans)
Point Spread: -10
Win Odds: 79% (1st)
Popularity: 94% (1st)
Sometimes you do not need to overthink things. The Ravens are the biggest favorite of Week 1, and while they are also the most popular pick of the week, several other teams are being picked nearly as often in pick'em pools.
Week 1 is also a week that so far isn't showing any extreme pick patterns on individual games, so we may need to wait until next week for some more overreaction-driven value opportunities on bigger favorites.
When there’s not a big gap in pick popularity between Baltimore and that of the next four biggest favorites of Week 1, your best move is to just lock in the Ravens, set them as your top pick in confidence pools, and seek value elsewhere. There's a whole lot of the 2023 pick'em season left to play.
Sensibly Priced Favorites
Seattle Seahawks (vs. LA Rams)
Point Spread: -5.5
Win Odds: 69% (5th)
Popularity: 79% (6th)
The Seahawks offer a decent blend of being one of the bigger favorites of Week 1, while also having enough pick'em entries going against them to provide some value. Seattle is currently the fifth-largest favorite of Week 1, but only the sixth-most popular pick at 79%.
We could also see some more line movement in this game before kickoff, due to Rams WR Cooper Kupp’s injury status. The Rams aren’t a very deep team offensively, and if Kupp is officially ruled out, this point spread should go up and push more value on the Seahawks.
Denver Broncos (vs. Las Vegas Raiders)
Point Spread: -3.5
Win Odds: 64% (8th)
Popularity: 69% (9th)
Will the Broncos’ redemption tour (take two) get off to a better start this year? The team was a disaster offensively last season with Nathaniel Hackett at head coach, and brought in Sean Payton to try to turn things around with QB Russell Wilson.
The Broncos are the closest thing to a value favorite this week, with 64% win odds and 69% pick popularity. Almost every bigger favorite tends to be overpicked by the public in pick'em contests, so when the difference is this close, it's almost never worth considering an upset pick.
Another note: Denver has traditionally been very good in Week 1 when getting to play at home at the Mile High altitude. Since 1990 the Broncos are 16-4 straight up and 13-5-2 against the spread in Week 1 home openers. In theory, any signal there should be factored into the current line, but theory may not always match reality.
Underdog Gamble
New England Patriots (vs. Philadelphia Eagles)
Point Spread: +3.5
Win Odds: 40% (24th)
Popularity: 22% (26th)
The public understandably loves the defending NFC champion Eagles going against a New England team that had a losing record a year ago. But the point spread in this game has been creeping in New England's direction, and the Patriots are now only a 3.5-point underdog. When the line is moving against a popular team, that should draw your attention.
If you are looking for the best bang-for-your-buck upset pick to leverage against the crowd, the Patriots have the most compelling blend of risk and reward in Week 1. Only 22% of pick'em pool entries nationwide are picking New England, while our models give them a very realistic 40% chance of victory.
Picks like these are generally best used in weekly prize contests, where getting an unpopular upset pick right can skyrocket you up the weekly standings.
Get Expert Week 1 Picks For Your NFL Pools
Every football pool demands a customized approach to pick strategy. In survivor pools, for example, should you lean more toward the safest Week 1 pick, Baltimore, or take your likely last chance to burn a pick with almost no future value, like Washington? In pick'em contests, is it worth it or not to take a calculated gamble by picking the Patriots to upset the Eagles?
The answer is "it depends," especially on factors like your pool's size, rules, and prize structure. If your survivor pool requires double picks starting later in the season, you need to consider the implications now, when making your Week 1 pick. If your pick'em pool uses confidence points, then it might be smarter to just put lower confidence on the Eagles, than pick an outright upset.
It takes a lot of data and math to get to the best answers, and most football pool players don't have the will, the skill, or the time to do it the correct way. That's why PoolGenius built the NFL Survivor Picks and Football Pick'em Picks products, which have helped subscribers win over $6 million in football pool prizes since 2017.
Use them at the links below, and good luck in your survivor and pick'em pools in Week 1!
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