Week 1 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan
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Between the weekly discussions on Move The Line and my weekly Lookahead Lines article, I'm constantly railing on our ability, or inability, to consistently beat a market as liquid as NFL sides. But player props? Player props are an entirely different story.
There are similarities that prop betting has with traditional markets, like sides and totals. First, the best way to consistently put yourself in a position to realize positive expected value (+EV) long-term is to beat the closing line number. Secondly, this is more difficult with sides than props, but you need better numbers than the market. With props, that means having the best projections. Projections that give you an edge against the field. Well, this is 4for4. We have the best projections, full stop.
I'm not here to promise you a list of winners every week like some old-school 800-number tout, but I have a pretty solid track record of forecasting player performance, and I believe our team's process is sound, and we can exploit this market every week of the season. These markets move quickly, so don't forget to jump into the subscriber Discord so you can get these plays as soon as they're released.
Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets
Patrick Mahomes Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-122, FanDuel)
Patrick Mahomes has always been a willing scrambler, and this is a perfect matchup for him to break contain a time or two, which is likely all we'll need.
The Lions allowed a league-high 700 rushing yards to quarterbacks last season, and Detroit's defensive coordinator, Aaron Glenn, is still in town. Detroit played man-to-man at the league's fourth-highest rate and played the lowest rate of pure zone coverage snaps in 2022. When looking to back a quarterback rushing over, outside of the quarterback's athleticism and willingness to be a runner, I want the opposition to play a high rate of man coverage, which we have here. Man coverage forces a larger number of defenders to turn their backs to the pocket, which makes it easier for a quarterback to break contain. The Lions also blitzed on 34% of their defensive snaps in 2022, the sixth-highest rate in the league, and if they maintain that rate against Mahomes, he'll smash this number.
Prior to injuring his foot in the early December meeting against the Bengals, Mahomes rushed for at least 21 yards in eight of nine games (30 rush yards/game). He then got rolled up on in the Divisional Round against the Jaguars, but he was healthy enough to post 44 yards on six carries against Philadelphia in the Super Bowl. I'd pause a bit if this is approaching the low 20s, but in the mid-teens, he only needs an attempt or two.
Risk: 1.22 units to win 1 unit on FanDuel
Nick Bolton (KC) Over 8.5 Tackles and Assists (+100, DraftKings)
After routinely being posted at 9.5 or 10.5 last season, we're getting a gift to start the season. This opened at 7.5 with massive juice, but I wanted to wait for a +money 8.5.
I have Bolton with the highest projected tackles and assists (TA) total of Week 1 at 10.68. He gets a slight bump for the matchup and the home scorekeeper, but this is simply one of the best tackling LBs in the league, who's set to play every down. The Chiefs added Drue Traquill in the offseason, and Tranquill will rotate in with Willie Gay on passing downs and will have zero impact on Bolton's role. The Lions will run and work over the middle of the field a ton, and Bolton will benefit greatly. I'd play this up to 9.5 (-115).
Risk: 1 unit to win 1 unit on DraftKings
Fanduel Sportsbook Bonus
I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets.
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