SharpClarke's Best Week 1 NFL Bet: DAL @ NYG

Welcome to the 2023 season. In my weekly Matchup Spotlight series, I will take a deeper look at one matchup each week and lay out a case for betting one side or the other, as well as my favorite way to attack based on currently available odds. This week, let's talk about the Sunday Night Football showdown between the Dallas Cowboys and the New York Giants.

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Matchup Breakdown

DAL Offense vs. NYG Defense

Unless the Cowboys' offense takes a step back without Kellen Moore, they should be a top-10 unit again this year. Last season, they finished 9th in EPA/play and 9th in EPA/dropback after adjusting for garbage time. But starting in Week 7, when Dak Prescott returned from injury, they finished 7th in EPA/play and 6th in EPA/dropback. Their run game was surprisingly mediocre, but should see some addition by subtraction without Ezekiel Elliott. Last year, Tony Pollard averaged 5.2 yards per carry, and Elliott averaged just 3.8 yards per carry. Featuring Pollard should be a good thing. They also added Brandin Cooks to the receiver room, who is a perennially underrated veteran who should have a positive impact right away.

And things should come easy to them against a defense that ranked 27th in EPA/play allowed last season against a fairly easy schedule overall. Prescott is a very smart quarterback who can handle quick pressure by anticipating it and finding the hot routes, so Wink Martindale's famous blitz-heavy approach is not likely to work. Last year, Prescott ripped off 8.7 yards per pass play against the Giants and converted all four red zone opportunities into touchdowns. He did keep the Giants in the game with two interceptions, although one involved Michael Gallup making a weak cut, and the other involved a bobbled ball (and, arguably, defensive pass interference). Even in the game that Cooper Rush started, the Cowboys' offense was good, averaging 6.4 yards per play and winning the time of possession battle in a 23-16 win. The Giants' defense may have improved, especially if Kayvon Thibodeaux takes a step forward in his sophomore season. But I doubt they have improved enough to win the battle against this offense.

NYG Offense vs. DAL Defense

Things probably will not be much easier for the Giants on offense, unless they have taken a massive step forward in the off-season. Last year's raw numbers look okay for the Giants. Daniel Jones finished 16th in EPA/dropback and 13th in dropback success rate, as he dinked and dunked his way down the field with accuracy and good decision-making. They ran the ball effectively and kept things simple in the passing game. The problem is that he did this against mostly bad defenses. They played only three teams that finished in the top 14 in defensive efficiency and only two teams that finished in the top 8. In the four games Jones played against those two teams (Philadelphia and Dallas), he completed just 58.7% of his passes for 5.78 yards per attempt, with an 11.9% sack rate for a net 4.48 yards per pass play. It was not pretty. Digging even deeper, if you exclude a drive against Dallas that started with a minute left down 15 points (completely meaningless) and second-half drives against Philadelphia in a game that was 27-7, his numbers dip to 57%, 5.44 yards per attempt, a 13% sack rate and 4.07 net yards per pass play.

It makes sense that a schematically limited offense would struggle against the very best defenses. And there is good reason to think the Cowboys this year will be a top defense. Still anchored by Micah Parsons and Trayvon Diggs, the defense added Stephon Gilmore to play opposite Diggs. They have consistently been a defense that gets pressure and sacks, finishing 6th and 2nd in defensive efficiency the last two years. Better coverage play will only help their case. Last year, the Giants went 0-4 with Jones at quarterback against the Eagles and Cowboys, and none of the games were particularly close. If the Giants surprise to the upside, it will need to be another coaching masterclass by Brian Daboll. Possible, but not likely. If so, I expect it will involve a lot of Darren Waller capitalizing in the middle of the field, which the Giants obviously did not have last year.

Market Evaluation

This game has been bouncing between DAL -3 and DAL -3.5 for months. Books have made it expensive to take DAL -3 and NYG +3.5 and have been hesitant to really take a position on this game. I thought Dallas would take more money, but a few things have kept bettors interested in the Giants. First, they are an opening week home divisional underdog in prime time. I do not bet trends, but some indicate real advantages. Those are present here. On top of that, the Giants' offense looked absolutely dominant in their only preseason possession, while Prescott and the Cowboys did not take the field. There is some fear the Cowboys might be slow to start, whereas the Giants looked primed based on preseason.

Best Bet

I do not think those angles warrant backing the Giants. In fact, I think the market reaction has provided value on the Cowboys. But there is some trepidation with how quickly they start, especially after watching the Lions' offense struggle after playing no preseason snaps. Even if they get off to a slow start, however, I expect the Cowboys to exert their will here eventually. The gap in quality between these two teams is simply too wide to ignore. I'll take the hit on my odds to play the money line here, given the DAL -3 prices are steep already, and covering 3.5 is not easy in this spot.

DAL ML -165 (Circa), playable to -170

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