Week 2 Thursday Night Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Sep 14, 2023

Thursday Night Single-Game DFS: Vikings at Eagles

Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome the showdown breakdown for the Week 2 Thursday Night Football clash between the Vikings and Eagles, two division winners from a season ago. Philadelphia looked sloppy in a win against New England, nearly letting a 16-point lead slip from their hands. The Vikings managed to look even sloppier, taking a bad loss to the Buccaneers at home to begin the season. Even with 49.0 point total, somewhat middle of the round by today’s NFL standards, of all the island games this weekend this game has by far the highest shootout potential. Let’s dig into strategies and approaches for single-game DFS players.

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Game Environment

^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}

Vikings (+7, 21) @ Eagles (-7, 28); Over/Under 49.0

The Vikings are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL and are now approaching a top-tier pace of play as well. Combine this with the fact that it appears the Minnesota passing attack will remain highly consolidated around their top three options, we can expect plenty of spike weeks from the Vikings’ “core three” of T.J. Hockenson, rookie Jordan Addison, and all-world wideout Justin Jefferson.

Philadelphia tends to lean on the run a bit more than the Vikings, but they still find themselves in the upper-right quadrant of the chart above, indicating they still rank among the most pass-happy and uptempo teams in the league. If Week 1 is to be believed, then the Eagles’ passing game may be even more consolidated than their opponent. This makes for a very intriguing slate from a game theory standpoint as even casual fans will know who the “best plays” are in this game. Even with that being the case, I won’t have a single lineup that doesn’t include one or more of DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, or Justin Jefferson, as their potential for slate-breaking scores far outpaces all other non-quarterback players.

Quarterback Analysis

^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}

From an analytical standpoint, Kirk Cousins often takes flack for playing like a replacement-level quarterback. And when scaling the primary efficiency metrics above, the data mostly bear that out. Since the beginning of last season, Cousins has been ever-so-slightly above league average in terms of his ability to turn drives into scores or to make strong decisions on a per-play basis (as measured by EPA in the middle column). He does, however, complete passes at a higher rate than we expect, likely due to the plethora of skill talent he has been graced with during his tenure in Minnesota. PFF graded Cousins as their ninth-best quarterback a season ago.

This week, he goes up against a defense that lost several members from their starting secondary unit in 2022 and has already suffered multiple injuries in 2023, including to cornerback James Bradberry. Between the injuries, skill weapons, and projected game environment, there’s more than enough evidence to bet on a bullish outcome for Cousins. Though, Cousins is no stranger to a back-breaking turnover or two. Of the 36 quarterbacks who played 200-plus snaps last season, Cousins ranked fourth-worst in plays deemed turnover-worthy by PFF.

The Eagles’ game plan revolves entirely around the unique skill set of their star quarterback. Many know that Jalen Hurts was a strong option for fantasy gamers a season ago, but fewer realize that Hurts ranked among the league’s perennial superstars in all three primary efficiency metrics charted above. His top-five rankings in all three categories suggest a player firing on all cylinders as a passer and rusher. Hurts ranked second-best in the NFL in turnover-worthy play rate a year ago, yet another indicator of his elite level accuracy and decision-making. Hurts graded out 10th-best, four spots ahead of Cousins, in PFF’s pass grade in Week 1.