Thanksgiving Day Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays for 49ers at Seahawks

Nov 22, 2023

Thanksgiving Day Single-Game DFS: 49ers at Seahawks

Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Thanksgiving Night Football, the final matchup of the three-game turkey day slate, featuring a battle between the top two teams in the NFC West, and a preview of a potential first-round playoff matchup, with the 49ers traveling to Seattle to take on the Seahawks. San Francisco looked dominant in their win over the Buccaneers and improved to 7-3, tied for the third-best record in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Seahawks suffered a back-breaking loss to the Rams after Geno Smith, battling through an elbow injury, led the team on a potential game-winning drive, only for Jason Meyers to miss the field goal, allowing the Rams to escape with victory, and dropping the Seahawks record to 6-4. Let’s dig into this exciting Thursday night single-game slate.

Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

49ers (-6.5, 24.75) @ Seahawks (+6.5, 18.25); Over/Under 43

The 49ers are one of the most unique offenses in the NFL from a passing and pace standpoint. They’re one of the slowest teams in the league and they pass way less than the league average during neutral game scripts. Yet they score more offensive touchdowns per game than 30 NFL teams. Brock Purdy ranks bottom three in pass plays per game, but his per-pass efficiency rivals the best quarterbacks of 2023. They’re essentially average in deep passing rate, and red zone passing rate, dead last in overall pace of play, and it all doesn’t matter. Opposing defenses know they are going to be slowly, methodically, and surgically broken down, and they’re helpless to stop it.

The Seahawks don’t necessarily like to employ uptempo play in neutral game scripts, but they’ve proven to be more pass-heavy than previous Pete Carroll-led teams, ranking above average in neutral game script pass rate and in pass plays per game. Smith averages nearly four deep shots per game and five red zone pass attempts per game, also both above league average. The Achilles heel for this offense is the inability to convert drives into touchdowns, as their 1.9 scores per game ranks 20th, and it’s been worse of late—they’re 30th in that metric over the last three weeks.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

While most don’t consider Brock Purdy the primary catalyst of the 49ers’ offense, the efficiency metrics he’s currently putting up should put him into the MVP conversation. He’s top five in completion percentage over expectation, top five in true drive success rate, and best in the NFL in EPA per game. He’s top three in AYA, true passer rating, and fantasy points per dropback. And while he’s barely inside the top 30 in expected fantasy points per game, he’s inside the top 10 in fantasy points scored per game. While there’s always a concern that a large portion of the touchdowns head Christian McCaffrey’s way, Purdy is facing a Seattle defense that now ranks bottom third in the NFL in aFPA to quarterbacks and opposing receiving corps. Purdy doesn’t add much on the ground, averaging less than three rushes per game.

Geno Smith will start for Seattle despite an elbow injury knocking him out for part of Sunday’s loss to the Rams. Smith ranks right around league-average in per-pass, per-drive, and per-game efficiency. He’s outside the top 20 in expected fantasy points per game this season, and, like Purdy, does not contribute a ton with his legs, contributing less than seven rushes yards per game, and not scoring yet on the ground at all this year. San Francisco ranks second-toughest in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks.