Vivid Picks Thanksgiving Plays
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! While friends, family, and food will likely be at the forefront of your celebrations today, football should be as well. There are three games that are made significantly more exciting by placing an entry at Vivid Picks this week.
For those who are new, Vivid Picks is a simple fantasy sports game where you pick multiple players to go over or under their assigned line.
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Each week, I’ll be posting a free article with a few of my favorite plays of the week, some reasons why, and what I would play each leg to. If you enjoy my reasoning and want 15+ official plays each week, snag yourself a betting subscription for as low as $5! Also, join our FREE Vivid Picks Discord.
Vivid Picks Thanksgiving Plays
Jahmyr Gibbs over 47.5 rushing yards
Ever since the Detroit Lions came out of their Week 9 bye, Gibbs and Montgomery are in a much more even split. Gibbs has out-snapped Montgomery each of the past two weeks while getting 42% of the rushing attempts. Montgomery is still getting more work than him (48% rushing attempts), but this is a SIGNIFICANTLY closer split than what we saw earlier in the season. The first three games they played together, Montgomery had 66% of the rushing attempts while Gibbs had slightly over 20%. With both in and out of the lineup otherwise, the latest sample is all we have to go on. As I laid out, the gap in workload has become much closer.
Now we get an above-average matchup against the Green Bay Packers. They are 23rd in early down success rate allowed and 29th in explosive run rate. The last time these two teams played, the Lions ran the ball 43 total times! Obviously, some of that was game-script fueled, but they also still made an effort to run the ball early and often based on their PROE. With a closer split in carries and a great matchup as home favorites, I like Gibbs to clear 45 rushing yards pretty easily.
A.J. Dillon under 49.5 rushing yards
Dillon has been one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL. He'll get a bigger workload here without Aaron Jones, but I'm not sure it'll matter, given game script and efficiency concerns. He averaged 2.2 yards per carry last time around against the Lions, and I don’t expect his efficiency to spike much more in this spot.
Terry Mclaurin under 5 receptions
This is being priced at 4.5 -120 to the over at most domestic sportsbooks, so that is a bit of a value already. Factor in the matchup against the Cowboys being incredibly difficult, and you have another out for this under to hit! He only has more than five receptions in 4-of-11 games this season, regardless of the matchup.
Dak Prescott over 278.5 passing yards
I’m not sure this line could have been set high enough. The Washington defense has been hemorrhaging production through the passing game and Dallas was on a roll prior to last week’s mediocre outing against Carolina.
If these four plays hit, you win 10x your money!