2023 Breakout Receiver Model: Week 15
The breakout model is back for Week 15 and doing its best to roll with the punches of an injury-plagued regular season. It’s tough for a receiver-focused model to incorporate all of the moving parts of the NFL, but it’s most affected by a sudden change (read: deterioration) of quarterback play. Still, we saw a ton of breakouts from Week 14’s model, and expect the same in the weeks to come. As with last week, this article shifts gears away from its season-long fantasy focus and more about players who could break out in DFS, if not this week, then in the remaining weeks of the season. Let’s dig into the Week 15 model results.
About the Breakout Receiver Model
The 4for4 data science team, in conjunction with our award-winning projections expert John Paulsen, created the current iteration receiver "buy-low" model in order to use machine learning to identify under-performing wide receivers and tight ends on the verge of a breakout performance. The model utilizes historical data and recent player performance to help determine players who have received opportunity that is typically more valuable than recent production would indicate. This particular model's features include air yards and routes-run data as a means of determining opportunity. It also utilizes a proprietary efficiency metric that looks back at the past 10 weeks of individual player performance, all to better help predict the likelihood of a bounce-back in a player's future production. The model most heavily weights the last three weeks of data.
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