Week 17 Saturday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Dec 30, 2023

Saturday Night Single-Game DFS: Lions at Cowboys

Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 17 Saturday Night Football, where the Detroit Lions take on the Dallas Cowboys in a high-stakes NFC battle. Detroit, a week after clinching the NFC North for the first time in three decades, now faces a very strong Dallas team in a potential playoff preview. The Cowboys currently rank second in the NFC East and are vying for more than just a playoff birth, as they can potentially overtake the division-leading Eagles. Let’s dig into some key strategies and top plays for this special Saturday night single-game slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Lions (23.5) @ Cowboys (30); Over/Under 53.5

For a franchise known for losing much of the last several decades, this Lions team has been a revelation comparatively, securing their first division title in 30 years. Despite losing two of their last five games, they are still tied for the best record in the NFC. Detroit’s offense, ranking third in offensive touchdowns per game at 3.4, has been increasingly effective, upping that average to 4.0 per game over their last three contests. However, their secondary remains a concern due to long-term injuries, making them vulnerable against pass-heavy teams like the one they play this Saturday.

Detroit's overall pace of play ranks 22nd despite a top-10 average score differential. Contrasting what many believe, Goff and company are a pass-heavy offense in the red zone, averaging 4.9 attempts inside the 20. They’re just extremely run-heavy inside the 10, however, creating pathways for huge fantasy scores from either of their primary running backs.

The Cowboys present a formidable challenge to any opponent, boasting one of the most aggressive and fast-paced offenses in the NFL. They’re leading the league in red-zone pass attempts at 6.3 per game. Their offense, fifth-best in the league at 2.9 touchdowns per game, has experienced a slight dip to 2.0 over their last three outings, but that could change in a hurry. The potential absence of tackle Tyron Smith could impact their offense, especially against Detroit's strong defensive line led by Aiden Hutchinson. Dallas is known for its top-10 deep pass attempts and being the most pass-heavy team in the red zone, posing a significant threat to Detroit's undermanned secondary.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

Jared Goff's performance this season has been more than commendable, with numbers placing him in tier two of quarterbacks (well above average, but not elite) in terms of EPA per game in the second half of the season. Since Week 6, he’s ranked in the top five in true drive success rate, underlining his ability to sustain drives and create scoring opportunities. While his Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) has been just average, Goff’s advanced metrics show a quarterback playing at a very high level: he ranks ninth in AYA (Adjusted Yards per Attempt), fifth in true passer rating, and third in true completion percentage.

On the ground, Goff averages just 2.1 carries per game but has two rushing touchdowns. His 27 passing touchdowns are the third-most in the NFL. He currently ranks 12th among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game but faces a tough Cowboys’ pass defense, which ranks eighth in DVOA.

Dak Prescott is charting an MVP-level season, especially evident since Week 6. Since that point, he's leading the NFL in true drive success rate and EPA (Expected Points Added) per game. Despite dealing with the sixth most dropped passes among quarterbacks, he’s still in the top 10 in completion percentage versus expectation. Prescott adds 3-4 carries per game and has added three rushing touchdowns with his legs, clearly more comfortable scrambling than in years past.

Ranking third in QBR (Quarterback Rating), second in both deep ball and pressured completion percentage, and first in passing touchdowns, Prescott is poised to remain a fantasy football powerhouse. He currently ranks third among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game. Facing the Lions, who are 16th in pass defense DVOA and among the bottom three in yards allowed per pass attempt, Prescott has the better matchup of the two quarterbacks, at least on paper.