Week 18 Saturday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays

Jan 05, 2024

Saturday Night Single-Game DFS: Texans at Colts

Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to the showdown breakdown for a highly anticipated Week 18 Saturday Night Football matchup between the Texans and Colts. This game carries massive playoff implications, as both teams stand at 9-7 and tied for first in the AFC South along with the Jaguars. It's simple yet high stakes for both sides: win and secure a spot in the playoffs, lose and the season ends. Adding to the drama, if the Jaguars lose to the Titans on Sunday, the victor of this matchup clinches the division title and earns the privilege of hosting a playoff game. Let’s dig into the key plays and strategies for single-game DFS players looking to dominate this exciting slate.

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Game Environment

_{^{This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.}}

Texans (23.25) @ Colts (24.25); Over/Under 47.5

The Houston Texans bring a fairly balanced attack to the table, at least in neutral game scripts. They sit almost exactly at the league average in pass rate and pace when the score’s close. Averaging 35.4 pass plays per game, the Texans are ranked 13th in that metric this season. However, when behind they tend to accelerate their gameplay, pushing them to the fifth-highest overall pace of play in the league. Quarterback C.J. Stroud, while throwing deep slightly less than league average at 3.8 times per game, throws plenty in the red zone, averaging 4.5 passes per game within the opponent's 20-yard line. Still, Houston averages just 2.1 offensive touchdowns per game, 21st in the NFL this season.

On the other side, the Colts demonstrate a pass rate that slightly trails the league average in neutral situations, but their tempo is typically higher. When trailing, the Colts' pace surpasses even that of the Texans, resulting in the second-fastest overall pace of play in the NFL. Their 34.4 pass plays per game ranks almost exactly league average. Quarterback Gardner Minshew, while slightly below average in both deep passing rates and red zone passing rates, is probably saving the team from himself: he’s thrown the third-most passes charted as interceptable according to PlayerProfiler. Despite this, the Colts average 2.3 touchdowns per game, again slightly ahead of Houston, and more in alignment with the NFL average this season.

Quarterback Analysis

_{^{While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.}}

C.J. Stroud’s rookie season has been phenomenal, though there is still room for improvement according to some advanced metrics. Shroud ranks below average in completion percentage versus expectation but stands out in more critical areas such as true drive success rate and Expected Points Added (EPA) per game, where he’s comfortably above average. He ranks third in the NFL with 7.9 Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AYA) and fourth in total EPA, which is particularly impressive considering he missed two games.

He doesn’t add much on the ground, as he’s averaging 2.6 carries per game, but he has three rushing touchdowns, complementing his 21 through the air. Stroud ranks ninth among quarterbacks at 18.6 fantasy points per game. The Colts' defense, currently ranked 14th in pass defense DVOA and 24th against the run, shouldn’t be too much for him to handle. Indianapolis is 11th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks.

Indianapolis' Gardner Minshew has been a pleasant surprise all year, surprisingly matching Stroud closely in many advanced metrics. Both quarterbacks fit into the 'gunslinger' archetype, taking risks and playing aggressively. This approach has led Minshew to rank near the bottom of the NFL in CPOE, similar to Stroud. However, Minshew's performance in EPA per game is only slightly below Stroud's, and he edges the rookie in true drive success rate this season. Minshew's rushing also mirrors Stroud, as Minshew averages 2.2 attempts per game and has scored three times on the ground. The Texans have become one of the biggest pass-funnel defenses in the NFL, ranking second in DVOA against the run and second-best in yards per carry, but 23rd in pass defense DVOA and 22nd in yards per pass attempt.