Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Sep 07, 2024

Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Sportsbooks are firing on Week 1 props earlier than ever, and with multiple shops opening props, we decided to test our luck early. For those of you new to my weekly prop bets, this will be my 5th season publicly posting my plays. I have been profitable each of the past four years. All of our plays come with write-ups and are either at multiple books or have significant limits that can withstand a release late in the week.

This year we are going to be playing widely available props a bit earlier in the week with the goal of each subscriber being able to bet at least $100 at a playable number.

In addition to my props, Ryan Noonan has absolutely crushed the defensive prop market the last few years. He’s 162-101 (61.6%) over the past two seasons (+41.84u). He also does his own defensive projections, which he releases on Saturdays.

Additionally, we hired:

Monotone Football: Stu has crushed the prop market for years and will now be releasing all of his plays in 4for4's discord.
Hunter Huss: Takes a data-driven approach to the sides and totals market, winning almost 50 units alone last season.
Jake Lotenberg: Originate, pinpoint value, and release plays for Underdog/PrizePicks/Vivid/Betr, etc.
Stephen Hoopes: Interception props based on his model that hit over 62% of the time with an average juice of -130 last year.

If that sounds interesting to you, get your first month of EVERYTHING at 4for4 for just $10 with code: TROPHY!

You can also get two months of the betting subscription or even a full year for $10 with a deposit at one of our partners' sites!

Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets

Mecole Hardman Under 9.5 receiving yards (10.5 at DraftKings -115)

Available at other shops as well for a similar price. Very on-brand play for me here but Hardman is likely going to be the WR6 and may not run a single route all game but WIlL play on special teams as the kick returner which counts as playing and doesn’t void the bet. Based on preseason usage he is behind:

Rashee Rice (going to play all the time)
Xavier Worthy (played with starters a ton)
Justin Watson (played w starters a bit)
Skyy Moore (sat out 3rd preseason game, Hardman did not. Got WR4 snaps w starters in 2nd preseason game)
Juju Smith Schuster (recently signed and expected to play Thursday per Reid’s comments).

I prefer a lower receiving line instead of R&R because they could use him on an end around or something fluky but I truly don’t think he runs very many routes if any. Even if he does, he is so bad it may not even matter. Good side convo with Monotone about Reid’s “comments” about Worthy “starting slow”. Reid said yeah we’ll see “how it goes when things are flying fast and furious.” The Chiefs beat reporter then interpreted that as Worthy starting slow/playing less. Which I don’t agree with. Even if i’m wrong and Worthy is eased in, I expect Skyy Moore to pick up the slack, not Hardman.

Tony Pollard over 9.5 receiving yards (10.5 -115 at DraftKings fine as well)

The Bears defense was great against the run last season but struggled to defend running backs in the passing game allowing 59 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, by far the most in the league.

Pollard is a more than capable pass-catcher and figures to be the 1A to Tyjae Spears in this offense. In the preseason he and Spears were rotating drives which actually helps Pollard's pass-catching upside if he is playing on 3rd downs. He played 19 snaps in the preseason with the first team and had a receiving line of 4 receptions for 38 yards on just 19 snaps, running 7 routes.

I expect the Titans to emphasize the quick game and get the ball out quickly here like they did in preseason with the coaching change to Brian Callahan and Will Levis struggling with holding the ball too long last season.

Pollard should be one of those beneficiaries with Hopkins battling through a torn MCL and Spears the 1B here. Even if I am wrong about the projected roles, the matchup is so good he can easily hit the base number here.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit at FD

Risk 0.1 units on 30+ rec yards +440 at CZRS

Risk 0.1 units on 40_ rec yards +900 at CZRS