Week 3 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game), or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

Make sure to add the Rebet Channel to your channel list and turn on alerts for @Rebet Ping to get notifications for the bets as they are released.

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Week 2 Recap: 2-2, -$42 (assuming $100 units)

Wins: KJ Osborn UNDER 24.5 receiving yards; Juwan Johnson UNDER 26.5 receiving yards

Losses: DAL -6.5 & Iosivas OVER 2.5 receptions.

Week 3 NFL Best Bets

KJ Osborn (NE) UNDER 2.5 Receptions (-159) Prop City – WIN

Released in Discord on 9/17. KJ ran 14 routes in Week 1 and 20 routes this past weekend. The Patriots rotate 4 WRs (Polk, Douglas, Thornton, and KJ). The Pats also run 12 personnel A LOT and are also bottom 5 in PROE. Their Thursday night game against the Jets will be slow-paced, so I do not expect a lot of offensive plays from the Pats.

Unfortunately, I do not think we will get another Osborn 2.5 receptions line for a while. The Patriots have an anemic offense and are going up against one of the best pass defenses in the league, and the Patriots rotate all of their WRs as well.

Noah Fant (SEA) OVER 1.5 Receptions (+108) Prop City

Noah Fant is the full-time TE for the Seahawks. He ran 34 routes on 48 dropbacks, although he only has three receptions on the season. He has seen seven targets through two weeks. Seattle runs an extremely concentrated offense, as JSN, Locket, Metcalf, and Fant account for the majority of the routes. This is too low of a line for a full-time player; a few examples are Mundt, Gesicki, and Chig, who are all not full-time players yet still have a 2.5 line.

Dalton Kincaid (BUF) OVER 3.5 Receptions (-130) Prop City

After Kincaid's Week 1 dud performance, he started the game off great last week against the Dolphins. He was on his way to what looked like a big game but was kneed in the head. He then was in and out of the game, and they blew them out. Against the Dolphins, he only ran 15 routes and was targeted four times for four catches. Kincaid is the Bills' most talented pass catcher, and I expect them to get him the ball. 3.5 is too light.

Jakobi Meyers (LVR) UNDER 3.5 Receptions (-137) Prop City

Through two weeks, it's been clear that Jakobi is the 3rd option in the passing game behind Bowers and Davante. Surprisingly, the Raiders started the season off throwing at one of the highest rates in the league. This is probably because they trailed the Chargers and the Ravens for most of the game. Despite the elevated pass rate, Meyers has only seen eight targets, and now they play the abysmal Panthers; this should be a game where they can deploy the heavy run attack we expected to see all season.

DubClub

I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays, and through two weeks, we have released a total of 44 individual props (11 total entries):

Individual play record: 29-15 (65.9% win rate)

Entry record of 3-10 (+$900; this assumes betting $100 per entry)

Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a massive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 4, you would have an 88.7% expected ROI!

If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!