Week 4 NFL Pick Em & Survivor: The Suvivorpocalypse

There’s not much to say as we dive into Week 4. This has been one of the more bizarre survivor years in recent memory. We’ve seen an incredible amount of upsets. I’m not going to say who’s to blame for the shape of survivor pools but I’m not thrilled with Tigers or the state of Ohio at the moment. We’ll kick things off with a dive into pick ’em pool strategy and then guide you through the best approaches for navigating the chaos of survivor pools in the weeks ahead. We’ll be getting an assist from Pool Genius for some analysis.

PoolGenius is the only platform exclusively focused on helping you win more pools, offering proven tools and strategies designed to give you a competitive edge. With expert insights, data-driven analysis, and tailored recommendations, it empowers you to make smarter picks and increase your chances of success. Whether you're a seasoned player or just starting, PoolGenius provides everything you need to outlast the competition and improve your results.

The Chalk

Many players get caught up in the details when discussing pick’em pools, often overlooking the bigger picture. While getting games right is crucial, the game theory aspect is often underemphasized. Pick’em pools are as much about probability and strategy as they are about knowing the Xs and Os. We’ll analyze how the public’s picks are trending each week and use that insight to guide our decisions. We did nail the Broncos and Bills in this section last week for some hefty confidence points, so hopefully that makes up for the survivor situation.

Houston Texans (-7) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Houston
Confidence Point Range: 10-12 Points

At this time, our friends at PoolGenius have it projected that Texans will be picked by about three-quarters of public pool participants with the spread. It’s hard to find a metric where the Jaguars are outperforming the Texans. Houston did just lay an egg in Minnesota. Heading back home, against a Jacksonville squad that just lost by 37 on Monday night, seems like a great “get right” spot.

Dallas Cowboys (-6) at New York Giants
Pick: New York Giants
Confidence Point Range: 8-10 Points

Neither of these teams has looked particularly impressive, but I don’t see a blowout happening on a short week. If you cancel out both of their performances against the Browns, how could you believe either of these teams has enough in the tank to do more than survive? There’s not much thriving going on in the NFC East and it’s pretty easy to see a low-scoring close game between these two given the current state of either team on both sides of the ball.

Favorite Coin Flip

Each week, I'll outline my favorite matchup where neither team is being picked over 60% in public pools (when possible). These matchups are where pick 'em leagues are won in the long run. You may get lucky here and there with a big underdog that hits, but being right in these matchups that are perceived to be closer can be a huge advantage over the long run.

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) vs Washington Commanders
Pick: Arizona
Confidence Point Range: 7-9 Points

This is the exact type of game that leads to success in pick ‘em pools. It’s great to gain some leverage by going with unpopular picks in popular games, but the coin flips are where you can gain consistent points. The Cardinals play host to the Commanders after an impressive effort by Washington on Monday Night. Arizona has been a bit better than Washinton in the red zone and has been slightly more efficient on a points-per-play basis. I’d bump up the confidence points here if the line drops under three but that seems unlikely at this point.

Surviving Survivor

Survivor pools are a unique strategic challenge where misplaced emphasis can lead to early exits. Many participants focus heavily on saving strong teams for later in the season, but this strategy can backfire if you overlook the week you're in. The fundamental principle of survivor pools is survival, after all.

Path A: Eliminated by Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1
Path B: Eliminated by Cincinnati Bengals in Week 3 (Buffalo W1, Los Angeles Chargers W2)
Path C: Eliminated by San Francisco 49ers in Week 3 (Seattle W1, Houston W2)

The Top Options

Unfortunately, our choices here have been eliminated. If you went with one of the secondary options, like the Jets last week you’re likely sitting pretty in your pools at the moment. So, the beat goes on!

I did mention last week that I’d like to save the Jets for their tilt against the Broncos this weekend and they are the second most popular pick at the moment. The San Francisco 49ers have the top spot with about 33% popularity. Besides the Jets, the only two other teams with double-digit popularity are the Dallas Cowboys and the Houston Texans. I outlined my thoughts on the Cowboys against the spread above, but I do like them to win this game outright so I don’t mind that pick there.

Looking at the future value metric combined with the Week 4 EV from Pool Genius, the Jets or Cowboys seem like the sharpest picks. San Francisco still has so much future value that it’s hard to burn them this week if you’re still remaining in your survivor pools. If I had to pick one, I’d go with the Jets this week.

The Bottom Line

Week 4 presents a crucial moment for both pick ’em and survivor pool players as upsets and unpredictable outcomes continue to shake up the league. Navigating these pools requires a blend of strategy, probability, and game theory. For pick ’em pools, leaning into public trends while focusing on key matchups like Houston over Jacksonville and Arizona over Washington can provide crucial points. On the survivor front balancing future value with current expectations is vital. Staying adaptable and making sharp decisions now is the key to surviving the chaos ahead.