Week 5 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Ryan Noonan

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I spend a lot of time analyzing defensive performance, and the majority of my props land on that side of the ball. I'll also mix in some "traditional" offensive props but expect to see more defense than offense here. The power of our community moves these lines very quickly, so if you're waiting for tackle props to pop in here first, you'll be missing the best line and price on every play. Week 4 was brutal, one of the worst I can remember, but no excuses, play like a champion and let's move on to Week 5.

This year, we will be playing widely available props a bit earlier in the week, knowing that the available limits at that time still serve most of our audience and their budgets. The landscape has changed and we're adapting to change with it to better serve our subscribers. All of our plays come with detailed write-ups and are either at multiple books or have significant limits that can withstand a release late in the week.

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Lines and prices are accurate at the time of posting in Discord.

Week 5 NFL Player Prop Bets

Jayden Daniels (WSH) Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

This is a fair median line for Daniels, but I think there are a few matchups and tendency-specific things that'll push him over this line.

First, the Browns are playing man coverage at the league's third-highest rate and blitzing on nearly 32% of their opponent's dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Per NextGenStats, Jayden Daniels has scrambled on a league-high 16.7% of his non-pressured dropbacks this season, more than three times as often compared to the NFL average (5.1%). He leads all quarterbacks with the highest scramble rate (18.4%) and the most scramble yards (179) through four weeks. Daniels' 18.4% scramble rate is the highest by any qualified quarterback since 2018. He also had at least six designed runs in each of the first three games, but it wasn't necessary last week when they blew the doors off of Arizona, so he finished with just two designed runs (8 attempts overall).

The Browns have allowed a league-high 11.6 yards per rush to quarterback scrambles this season. Daniels faced the most pressures (13) and his highest blitz rate of the season so far back in Week 1 (33%, nearly the same as Cleveland's season average) against the Buccaneers, where Daniels posted a season-high seven scrambles, running 16 times overall for 88 yards. The Cardinals (31st in pressure rate), Bengals (29th), and Giants (13th), Daniels's past three opponents, aren't exactly pass-rush specialists.

In one of the best spots in the league for snaps and pace and questions at running back for the Commanders, there's a lot of potential for a ceiling outcome for Daniels on the ground here.

Risk: 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Brock Purdy (SF) Over 252.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

It's stunning to me that the 49ers are dead last in yards after the catch this season. They've been the league leader every year under Kyle Shanahan, and I think there's some positive regression coming here at some point. Even without YAC or high passing volume, Brock Purdy is cooking. He's reached at least 288 in each of the past three starts, and this matchup against the Cardinals is as soft as it gets.

Per NextGenStats, Purdy has averaged over a full yard more than any other quarterback when facing zone coverage this season (10.8). The Cardinals are primarily a zone-first team, playing man-to-man on just 20% of their snaps. Purdy's completed 77.2% of his passes against zone coverage (6th in the NFL), and he ranks second in air yards per attempt (10.3) on those passes. The Cardinals have allowed the highest success rate (64.9%) and 2nd-most yards per attempt (9.2) in zone coverage this season. When playing zone coverage, the Cardinals allow the 2nd-highest open target rate (52.4%) and the highest completion percentage (71.4%) on passes over 10 air yards.

Slot CB Garrett Williams is out for ARZ, plus this is as healthy as Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle have been all season.

Risk:1.15 units to win 1 unit

Joe Burrow (CIN) Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (-115, DraftKings)

This is the path to least resistance for the Bengals. The Ravens rush defense has been excellent, and teams are skewing run-heavy against them, with a +5.17% pass rate over expected (PROE), which is the highest rate in the league. With Burrow under center, the Bengals are always one of the league leaders in PROE (currently 5th), so the matchup is perfect.

The Bengals are also doing a great job protecting Burrow this season, allowing pressure on just 19.5% of his dropbacks, which is the lowest rate in the league. Baltimore is just middle of the pack in pressure rate after leading the league in 2023. This is one of the highest totals of the week, and I think Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson have no trouble moving the ball here, so the Bengals will have to pass at a high clip to keep up.

Risk: 1.14 units to win 1 unit

I will continue to update this column throughout the week as I release more bets.

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