NFL SGP Picks: Hyslop's Chargers vs. Cardinals Parlay for MNF
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Monday Night Football SGP - Los Angeles Chargers vs Arizona Cardinals (+131) - Rebet
Legs One & Two: J.K. Dobbins 16+ Rushing Attempts & 61+ Rushing Yards
The first thing I noticed about ReBet was the fact that they let us parlay rushing attempts with rushing yards. That's dumb. There aren't many books on the planet that let us do that for obvious reasons. They can get away with receptions and receiving yards in the passing game, but it feels crazy to allow it in the rushing attack. Attempts and rushing yards are just too tightly correlated. Whatever. We should just do it and move on.
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The thing about J.K. Dobbins is, he's a grinder. Not the app, the actual thing. My favorite part about taking a guy like him is, his coaching staff will just feed him. Over his last four games, his lowest attempt total has been 14. That was against a tough Kansas City run defense in a game the Chargers lost. I'm expecting the exact opposite tonight. For starters, the Chargers should play this thing in a neutral game script. If that's the case, they'll be lining up to run against a team that has allowed 5.4 yards per rush attempt over the last three games. That's bottom five in the NFL in that span. Dobbins is going to carry the ball 16+ times and when he does, he's going over 61 yards. Feels right.
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Leg Three: Trey McBride 5+ Receptions
I didn't love this at five but the more I think about it, it's happening. For starters, McBride has done this in every game he's played this season except one. Kyler trusts this guy. He's like a security blanket out there. One that can catch. Couple that with the fact that teams seem to attack the Chargers with the tight end. On the season, LA has seen their opponents target the tight end position 41 times. If you're familiar with math, that's more than eight times a game. If we're being honest (we are), I'd be shocked if Trey didn't have this by halftime. Feels easy.
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Lines and prices accurate at the time of posting in Discord
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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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