Week 13 & Thanksgiving NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
We continued to dominate the NFL player prop market in Week 12 with a 7-3 outing for close to 3 units. I’m now up 28.44 units while hitting 62.38% of my official plays!
All plays come with write-ups, a two-minute warning in the discord, and have multiple outs available at the time of release. I am having my best season of betting player props ever and there are a few reasons i’d like to dive into.
Before I do, if you don’t have a subscription, there is no better time to hop in than now. You can get a betting subscription for the rest of the year for just $16.99. That includes everything on the site and all of our bets from now through the Super Bowl. Subscribe: 4for4.com/plans
1. Releasing plays earlier in the week
The last few years, I have been waiting for DK AND Builder/FD to post a prop before releasing it so that people could be able to get down $500+ on a prop pretty easily like I am. After surveying our subscribers, we realized the vast majority were more than happy being able to get down $100 or less. So we made that our new goal when releasing plays, which means we could use just DK/CZRS or DK/FD, and no one would have many issues. The feedback has been almost all positive so far,
This has been helpful because occasionally some opening numbers are really soft. In previous years I would miss out on those officially but this year we are pulling the trigger.
2. Limiting the amount and kind of information I consume
I made a thread of people I rely on, and honestly, that’s about it. Each person/source has their own function within my process at different points of the week, and not over-consuming analysis has been extremely helpful. With so many unique angles and different data coming out, limiting the amount I consume to what I believe is the most actionable has been extremely helpful in decision-making. Check out the full list:
Want to shout out a few people who have helped me a TON (directly or indirectly) this season with my bets.
- The 4for4 betting team:@JakeLotenberg2, @RyNoonan, @MonotoneFootbal & @hlhuss22. Bouncing ideas off one another and discussing different spots has been invaluable this…— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) November 26, 2024
3. Rely on projections less frequently later in the week
This might seem counterintuitive but gone are the days of easily leveraging projections to make bets. A few years ago, any good set of projections could beat the player prop market, and a great set would absolutely crush it. At this point, books have moved numbers closer to the median and the prop community/other services sharpen any off-market lines pretty quickly. In the current day and age, with markets so much sharper, I have found much more success in looking at viable paths of failure or success instead of trying to boil all of that down or even using one number as the source of truth. It's slightly more subjective but largely rooted in quantitative analysis.
This range of outcomes approach has helped me identify more unders, which I am hitting at a 63.4% (59-34) clip this season. There are numerous examples of volatile variables each week that would instantly throw a projection into flux, but the two main ones are workload and efficiency. Workload can be impacted for a variety of reasons, and efficiency is a little bit more volatile in it's own right but, at the extremes, can be somewhat predictable against really good or bad defenses.
For example, last week, Ameer Abdullah was supposedly the “lead back,” but all 3 running backs (Sincere McCormack and Dylan Laube) were supposed to work per Antonio Pierce. Abdullah's O/U was 34.5 rushing yards. Most aggregate projections had him right around there and they weren't necessarily wrong, they were just fragile. A RB who hasn't seen 10+ carries in 7 years automatically getting all the work seemed unlikely. Game script as sizable underdogs also leaves a really low floor for rushing production if a team falls behind. The matchup was also not working in his favor (Broncos T-5 in most run D metrics) if neither of the other bear cases didn't work out.
The Raiders only worked in Sincere McCormack, and Abdullah STILL only accounted for 8-of-16 total carries with the Raiders in negative game script. He finished with 28 yards on 8 carries and the entire handicap didn’t even pan out because two other “outs’ for the under to hit (game script & tough matchup) played out. The point is, Abdullah under wasn’t necessarily a projectable edge based on aggregate projections because the workload was extremely difficult to nail down to a single number, but still hit because it had multiple paths to failure.
Enough prop theory; here are my actual plays for Thanksgiving and Week 13!
Week 13 & Thanksgiving Player Prop Bets
Jahmyr Gibbs over 73.5 rushing yards (-115 at DK)
Joint play with Noonan, originally released at 68.5 at FD in the discord. Montgomery was ruled out of the game last week, now we are catching a short week and great matchup for Gibbs. The Bears run D has been brutal this season, allowing 4.89 ypc to opposing RBs and 8 different RBs have 70+ rushing yards against them.
Meanwhile, Gibbs has turned into Jamaal Charles this season, crushing on middling volume. With a short week I expect them to shift even more usage to Gibbs who already has 69+ yards in 8-of-12 games. Add in the matchup advantage and Monty banged up and I wouldn't be surprised to see this close in the high 70's. Bit of an off market number from FD but totally fine in the low-70's as well.
Risk 1.13 units to win 1 unit
Tua Tagovailoa over 22.5 completions (-114 DK)
Completely fading the cold-weather narrative here as it is largely flawed. He has only even played two games below freezing in his career, one of which was in -27 degree weather against a top-3 KC pass D, the other was against a surging BUF D in 29-degree temps where he had a relatively efficient game (7.6 YPA). Broke it down more here:
The "Tua vs the cold" narrative seems wildly overblown.
He has only played in two games under Mike McDaniel with the temps below freezing. The arbitrary splits I keep seeing under 40/50 degrees (not even actually cold?) are probably just noise.
1. 2022 vs Buffalo (29 degrees)
-…— Connor Allen (@ConnorAllenNFL) November 27, 2024
Now he gets the Packers whose EPA looks good because of 22 turnovers but are 26th in per dropback success rate and middle of the pack in completion rate allowed. Since Tua returned the Dolphins are 4th in pass rate over expectation and Tua leads the league in targets at or behind the line of scrimmage (32.8%) and quickest time to throw (2.32 seconds).
Excluding the game he left early against Buffalo, he is averaging 25 completions per game with a median of 28. One other factor about the Packers defense is that they have played well when they get pressure. But with Tua the Dolphins are allowing the leagues-lowest pressure rate due to his super-quick release and fast play designs to Tyreek, Achane, Waddle, and Jonnu. With the Dolphins as 3-point road underdogs they could be forced to pass more than usual as well.
Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit
Tyrone Tracy (NYG) U14.5 rush attempts (-130 DK)
For the second week in a row, Tracy fumbled. After that fumble, he sat out multiple drives, sharing touches with Devin Singletary and Eric Gray. After his fumble two weeks ago Daboll unequivocally had Tracy’s back and said it wouldn’t impact his workload multiple times. After his fumble this week, he waffled and was a bit tougher, saying: “Tyrone Tracy Jr. turned the ball over. We gave Devin Singletary some burn, and Eric Gray, then put Tracy back in too. Ball security is “something we gotta continue to stress and work on. But I have a lot of confidence in Tracy. But we can’t turn the ball over to the other team.”
Even a little bit more of Singletary and Gray this week would give us a pretty solid edge. On top of the coachspeak and benching last week, the Giants are 3.5-point dogs with a hurt backup QB and OL that is consistently allowing a 40%+ pressure rate against a DAL D very capable of getting pressure despite their other woes. I’m not sure the Giants have a ton of sustained success here offensively which could lead to play volume issues in general.
Risk 1.18 units to win 1 unit
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This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.
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