Week 13 Best Bets on Rebet: Jake's Best Bets

Every week I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Week 12 Recap: 2-2, -$29 (assuming $100 units)

Overall: 27-15, +$1,008 (assuming $100 units)



Week 12 was another 2-2 split. The wins were: Tua Tagovailoa o240.5 Pass Yards & Will Levis u30.5 Pass Attempts The losses were: Adam Thielen u33.5 Receiving Yards & Justin Herbert o1.5 Passing TDs



Both of last week's wins (Tua & Levis) were sweat-free, Tua had 200+ passing yards at halftime, and Levis almost had a single-game career-high completion % making the attempts an easy cash. As expected, Tua just smoked this Patriots team through the air, and the Dolphins offense got whatever they wanted all game. The Titans continued with their below-average PROE and ran the ball 33 times as a team, and Levis attempted only 24 passes. The Thielen loss was a little frustrating because he only saw 4 targets in a game where Bryce Young attempted 35 passes, Thielen also had a TPRR of 0.14. Unfortunately, Thielen ripped off a 36-yard catch on a blown coverage. Herbert was the only bet I would wish to take back, but in the end, there was a path to go over as they did score 2 TDs, unfortunately, both on the ground from Herbert and Gus.

Week 13 NFL Best Bets

Cade Otton UNDER 47.5 Receiving Yards (-111) Prop City

Released in Discord on 11/28. Mike Evans returned last week, and Otton's absurd role came back down to earth. Weeks 8-10 without Evans, Otton had an absurd 0.26 TPRR. Otton has only topped a 0.20 TPRR in 1 game with Evans all season. The Bucs have revitalized their run game from years past and could ride Bucky/White/Tucker pretty hard here in this spot.

Mike Gesicki UNDER 2.5 Receptions (-122) Prop City

Released in Discord on 11/28. Gesicki has had some blow up games this season, but also some non-existent ones as well. Gesicki's TPRR drops drastically when Higgins has been on the field this season, in games in which Higgins has played, Gesicki is averaging only 1.83 targets per game, and has only gone over this number one time (Week 3 vs. Washington). Gesicki also gets a tough matchup against a physical Steelers defense, so I like him to stay under here.

Saquon Barkley OVER 2.5 Receptions (-120) Prop City

Released in Discord on 11/28. Earned four targets in both games without DeVonta Smith this season. Smith was limited in practice on Thursday, so his status for Sunday’s game is still up in the air. However, even if Smith is in, I think there are quite a few outs for Saquon here. We should also see a fast-paced, high-scoring game here and, with that, an increase in dropbacks for the Eagles. The Ravens have been awesome against the run this year, so it would make sense to target Saquon in the passing game and get him the ball in space.

Be sure to get in our Discord, as I may push out plays over the weekend as well. Important: You may notice some of the bets posted in this article either have already settled (Thursday Night game), or some of the odds/lines may have moved. The best way to get access to the bets as they are released is to join our subscriber-only Discord. All of our staff’s plays are released there, and that is the best way to guarantee you get the original line we post. Join the Discord to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience.

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DubClub

I also manage the DubClub pick’em plays and through twelve weeks,we have released a total of 184 individual props (62 total entries).

Individual play record of: 112-72 (60.9% win rate)

Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a massive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 5, you would have a 67.12% expected ROI this season!

If interested in joining DubClub, you can get your first week for only $1!

If you want push notifications for all of these bets, make sure to join our subscriber-only discord!

This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks and those from the rest of the betting staff. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

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