Week 13 NFL Pick'Em Plays Recap

Dec 03, 2024

Matthew Hinton-Imagn Images

Every week I’ll do a brief recap of our results and update our overall record, applying our win rate to the payout chart (shown below). Some weeks I’ll do a longer write-up, recapping some of the plays and my thought process behind them (and the outcome). The goal with our DubClub product is winning long-term and full transparency of our plays.

Week 13 Review

Wins: Carr o29.5 pass attempts, Hunt u58.5 rush yards, Otton u47.5 receiving yards, Evans o55.5 receiving yards, Sims u0.5 receiving yards, Hyatt u9.5 receiving yards.

Losses: Maye u21.5 pass completions, Gesicki u2.5 receptions, and Wicks o39.5 receiving yards.

Of the wins, Hunt and Evans were my favorites. As expected, with Hunt, Isiah Pacheco finally returned to the lineup. With a rushing line of 58.5, books were baking in some uncertainty on Pacheco's availability, but once he was confirmed in, we saw Hunt’s rushing yards close in the mid-40s. Although the Chiefs were playing a division rival, and every game matters, it was rather apparent that if Pacheco was making his debut back from injury against a team they're double-digit favorites against, there would be few limitations for Pacheco.

I credited Evans’ Week 12 decreased snap rate to the fact that the Bucs were blowing the Giants out, but it seemed the books were still skeptical about his health coming into Week 13. Despite his decreased playing time a week prior, his role remained elite, and Evans had a 0.29 Target Per Route Run (TPRR) in Week 12; this continued in Week 13 when he logged an impressive 0.30 TPRR. As I expected, Evans played 90% of snaps this week, up from his 66% in Week 12, and torched this weak Carolina secondary.

Of the three losses, I would take back Maye u21.5 pass completions. The Colts had allowed one of the highest completion percentages, and unlucky for us, Maye posted his season-high completion percentage and cleared this number with few pass attempts.

Note: As we get deeper into the season, the sites are posting props later in the week with all the injury uncertainty, so expect most plays to come later in the week. Remember, we encourage you to mix and match these entries into different 2/3/4/5 leg combinations.

This season, we have released a total of 193 individual props (65 total entries) thru 13 weeks:

📈 Individual play record of: 118-75 (61.14% win rate)

💰 Entry record of 13-52 (+$700; this assumes betting $100 per entry)

Using Underdog Fantasy's payout structure, applying our win rate to each pick level would have resulted in a massive ROI at each pick level (2/3/4/5). For example, if you played each of our plays in groups of 5, you would have a 70.87% expected ROI.