Super Bowl 59: Tackles and Assists Prop Bets Deep Dive

Feb 02, 2025

Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

The Super Bowl prop menu is extensive. The 'Big Game' brings an assortment of prop bets that we only get once a year, and the novelty of it all is part of the appeal. Personally, I'm not a fan of laying -110 on heads or tails, though I do love a good Gatorade color bet at long odds.

While those novelty props are fun and unique, the Super Bowl brings in other unique on-the-field bets that can be exploited with a bit of research. These bets are more difficult for the bookmakers to price, and that's where the majority of my attention (and money) lands leading up to kick-off.

I don't stray too far off from where my bread is buttered, though. I went off the beaten path early last season, eschewing elite wide receiver and running back receiving yard overs for the tab on the sportsbook app that's there every week but rarely clicked. DEFENSE.

It became clear to me very early that the tackle and assist (TA) market was fertile ground for +ev bets. Over the past three seasons, my ROI on TA bets has been 11.35%, with a hit rate of 60.19%. That does not include any bets made in the live market, which is also incredibly exploitable and has been a popular in-game addition for our 4for4 Bets subscribers. Sweating tackles will change the way you watch football and, hopefully, your bankroll.

A key factor and edge week to week in the tackle prop market is understanding the scorekeeper's tendencies. That sentence is likely difficult for you to process if you're new here, but there's a level of subjectivity around who's awarded a tackle (or assist).

A reception is a binary outcome. It either happens or it doesn't, though one could argue that we still don't know what a catch is. Tackles are different. Was that a solo tackle, or did that defender coming in late also deserve an assist for his role? Did that runner willingly step out of bounds, or was he pushed?

This can be quite a tilting experience if you're simultaneously watching the game and the box score, but it's all a part of the experience. Embracing its nuance and leveraging it is the only way.

I've been unsuccessful in my attempt to pin down an answer as to how the NFL scorekeeper situation works for the Super Bowl, but I don't believe it's the typical home team (in this case, the Saints) scorekeeper. So, I've made no scorekeeper-related adjustments to anyone's projections. If you're wondering, the Saints' scorekeeper handed out assists on 48.05% of tackling opportunities over the past two seasons, the 12th-highest rate in the league and 0.84% above the league average.

In this space, I want to preview every available TA bet for the Super Bowl. Most sportsbooks offer solo tackles and assist bets separately as well, and I'll highlight those when applicable. These markets move quickly but are available weekly on Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM, ESPNBet, and Bet365. FanDuel and BetRivers will dip their toes into the water for bigger games, but this is a market that we attack every week of the season at 4for4! I'll note the current best line and price, along with my projection, the expected hit rate, and the expected value (EV) of each play based on the projection. With that said, these lines can move quickly, so shop around.

Let's jump in.

Kansas City Chiefs Overview

Chiefs' opponents are averaging 61.0 plays per game on the season (11th fewest in the league) and 66.5 plays per game in the playoffs. The Eagles' offense averaged 64.9 plays per game on the season (fifth-most in the league) and 61.3 in the playoffs. Philadelphia's opponents have averaged 66.3 tackles and assists per game, the third-most in the league and 8.76% above the league average.

Nick Bolton

Line: 8.5 Tackles and Assists (Under, -130)
Book: FanDuel
Projection: 7.82
Over: 38.2% (-23.6% EV)
Under: 61.8% (+9.35% EV)

Nick Bolton's tackle rate has been declining for two consecutive years. Two seasons ago, when these teams last met in the Super Bowl, Bolton posted an elite 6.43 snaps per tackle on the year. A Week 1 ankle injury was to blame for his decline to 7.37 last season, but Bolton has been healthy all season, posting a middling 8.88 snaps per tackle on the year.

On top of that, we've seen Bolton go from playing every down to coming off the field for a handful of snaps occasionally. His snap rate was 93% on the season, and I have him projected for 96% of the snaps in this matchup.

Despite all the doom and gloom above, the Eagles are an elite matchup for opposing linebackers. Linebackers have accounted for 28.96% of all tackles against the Eagles this season, 1.31% above the league average. That doesn't seem like much, but when you factor in Philadelphia's above-average volume, that comes out to +2.32 linebacker tackles per game (19.2 vs. the league average of 16.88).

Drue Tranquill

Line: 7.5 Tackles and Assists (-114)
Book: FanDuel
Projection: 7.07
Over: 41.24% (-22.6% EV)
Under: 58.76% (+10.3% EV)

The Drue Tranquill story reads a lot like Nick Bolton's. Tranquill's playing time was a lot more consistent this season, but his tackle rate has dipped quite a bit from previous seasons. He'll need an uber-efficient game to go over this total, and against any other team, the under is a great look. He'll likely play between 77-85% of the snaps, coming off the field about 50% of the 3rd and 4th down snaps when the Chiefs are in nickel and dime packages. Tranquill has topped this line against run-centric teams this season (twice against Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and early-season Chargers). I think your opinion on this game impacts the handicap here. I'd stay away if you expect it to be close or pro-Philly, but if you think the Eagles are playing catch-up, I like the under.

Justin Reid

Line: 5.5 Tackles and Assists (-114)
Book: FanDuel
Projection: 6.03
Over: 55.92% (+4.97% EV)
Under: 44.08% (-17.25% EV)

This is a fair line for Justin Reid, though the projections slightly lean toward the over. Reid's rate of box snaps has varied based on the matchup this season, and I'll be interested to see how he's used in this matchup. Like his teammates listed above, Reid's tackle rate is down versus previous seasons, and the Eagles were a below-average matchup for opposing safeties all season, with just 18.55% of the total tackles against them coming from the safety position, 3.41% below the league average. It's over or nothing for me on Reid, but I'm staying away.

Chamarri Conner

Line: 4.5 Tackles and Assists (-114)
Book: FanDuel
Projection: 5.86
Over: 69.64% (+30.73% EV)
Under: 30.36% (-43.01% EV)

Per PFF, Chamarri Conner led all defensive backs in stop% against the run this season, which measures the percentage of a player's run defense snaps and tackles that constituted a "failure" for the offense. This season, Conner has been a weapon for Steve Spagnuolo's defense, working primarily out of the slot. His tackle rate is unsustainably high for a cornerback, but I said the same about him last season when he posted elite per-snap numbers as a rookie.

Even though he's unlikely to top 85% of the snaps, he'll be impactful while on the field. If I use his 2024 tackle rate, he projects for nearly 6.5 tackles on 75% of the snaps. I'm using a bit more conservative tackle rate and snap rate, and Conner is still projected at 5.86 tackles and assists here. As of this writing, FanDuel is the only book offering his line. Play the over.

Trent McDuffie

Line: 4.5 Tackles and Assists (Under, -133)
Book: DraftKings
Projection: 4.17
Over: 40.39% (-15.18% EV)
Under: 59.61% (+2.81% EV)

This logic will likely track even for the most casual of fans. Perimeter cornerbacks have a lower and far less consistent tackle rate than nearly any position, especially their peers who play in the slot. That shows up in a massive way when you look at Trent McDuffie's 2023 tackle rate (12.21 snaps per tackle) versus his 2024 rate (16.88). Last season, McDuffie played on the outside a little bit, rotating in the slot at times with L'Jarius Sneed, but he moved outside almost exclusively this season, especially when Chamarri Conner was healthy.

McDuffie is a willing run-filler, which is rare at cornerback, but he's only topped 4.5 tackles and assists once in his past nine games, when he had five in Week 17 against the Texans.

Jaden Hicks

Line: 3.5 Tackles and Assists (Over, -150)
Book: BetMGM
Projection: 4.08
Over: 58.22% (-2.96% EV)
Under: 41.78% (-10.18% EV)

I'm a little surprised to see Jaden Hicks lined, but it's the Super Bowl, so we typically see a bigger menu in all areas. Hicks is a rookie out of Washington State, and the fourth-round pick is a future high-upside IDP asset in the Kansas City secondary. He's seen his playing time increase over the second half of the season, taking a larger share of the free safety snaps as the season's gone along. In last week's Conference Championship game, Hicks played 68% of the snaps, with incumbent Bryan Cook playing 61%. The gap was similar in the Divisional Round against the Texans as well. It's a difficult projection to trust, but I have Hicks projected for 70% of the snaps in this one as of this writing. Getting more information on this situation will help solidify a play one way or another.

George Karlaftis

Line: 3.5 Tackles and Assists (Under, -130)
Book: FanDuel
Projection: 2.92
Over: 33.44% (-33.12% EV)
Under: 66.56% (+17.76% EV)

Last week's four-tackle game against the Bills was the first time all season that Karlaftis topped this line without posting a sack. We have seen Jalen Hurts take sacks at a higher rate this season, with a 23% pressure-to-sack rate, roughly 7-10% higher than his standard mark.

The Eagles are one of the more balanced rushing offenses from a run direction and gap standpoint, but their overall rush volume has created an above-average rate of tackle opportunities for opposing defensive linemen this season. Opposing defensive ends are averaging 10.2 tackles and assists per game against Philadelphia this season, 1.92 more than the league average. That's built into the Karlaftis projection, and we're still leaning under. He's +116 on FanDuel for over 0.25 sacks, which would be a better way to target Karlaftis if you like him in this spot.

Chris Jones

Line: 2.5 Tackles and Assists (Over, +136)
Book: FanDuel
Projection: 2.92
Over: 55.88% (+31.89% EV)
Under: 44.12% (-31.11% EV)

This game features two of the most impactful defensive players in the league: Jalen Carter and Chris Jones. Neither player posts eye-popping tackle or sack numbers, but they create so much havoc that everyone around them benefits. As good as Carter is and likely will become, what Jones has done this season deserved more DPOY attention than he received.

Jones primarily lines up as a defensive tackle, but on obvious passing downs, he'll often kick outside and rush from the edge. He was the only player in the league to post 25+ pressures from both an interior and EDGE rusher alignment this season. This is a 6'6", 310-pound nose tackle, folks! Not only is Jones my favorite sack bet on the board (+134 on FanDuel), but he's also a good bet to get three or more tackles in this matchup. This season, 18.1% of all the tackles against the Eagles have come from defensive tackles (12.1 per game), the second-highest mark in the league. Their high rush rate, including the Tush Push, leads to an above-average rate of opportunities along the interior defensive line. I like the over here on Jones.

Philadelphia Eagles Overview

Eagles' opponents are averaging 60.3 plays per game on the season (third-fewest in the league) and 61.3 plays per game in the playoffs. The Chiefs' offense averaged 63.4 plays per game on the season (ninth-most in the league) and 66.5 in the playoffs. Kansas City's opponents have averaged 65.1 tackles and assists per game, the sixth-most in the league and 6.79% above the league average.

Zack Baun

Line: 9.5 Tackles and Assists (Over, -132)
Book: FanDuel
Projection: 9.98
Over: 53.89% (-5.28% EV)
Under: 46.11% (-6.87% EV)

You've likely heard a bit by now about how improbable Zack Baun's season was. A former EDGE rusher and special teamer with the Saints, Baun began the offseason as the fourth linebacker on the Eagles depth chart, and by the end of the preseason, he was sitting atop the depth chart after outplaying all of his peers. He not only justified that move by the coaching staff, but Baun emerged as one of the best all-around off-ball linebackers in the game. Vic Fangio is not afraid to line up Baun on the edge and use his pass-rush skills, but Baun was arguably the best coverage linebacker in the league this season.

Per NextGenStats, Baun has allowed 5.3 yards per target this season, the fewest by any linebacker in the NFL who has faced at least 40 targets.
He has allowed 50 completions on 74 targets, resulting in the lowest completion percentage over expected among that same group of linebackers (-8.8%). On top of that, Baun posted an elite 6.22 snap per tackle rate on the season, the second-best among all defensive players with at least 100 tackles on the year, a sample of 53 players. The Chiefs have been a slightly above-average matchup for linebackers on the season, but the game script will play a major role here. Baun has been a popular click as the early numbers came out, and this is lined out to 10.5 in most spots, while FanDuel is still offering 9.5 as of this writing. The under will be an uncomfortable sweat, but it's likely the best way to go if we stay at 10.5.

Oren Burks

Line: 9.5 Tackles and Assists (Under, -143)
Book: DraftKings
Projection: 8.93
Over: 40.4% (-13.95% EV)
Under: 59.6% (+1.28% EV)

Like Baun, Burks is a different price on FanDuel, where he's lined at 8.5 (Over, -120). Burks is filling in for Nakobe Dean, who finally emerged in his third season but was lost for the season with a knee injury back in Week 16. The small sample of snaps makes Burks a tricky projection, but asking him to get to 10 tackles here is quite the ask. He'll likely come off the field on a handful of long-down-and-distance snaps, so we're looking at a snap rate around 85-90%. Leaning under on 10 tackles and assists is likely the right play for any player, and it's clearly the play here for someone without much experience, an every-down role, or an elite individual matchup.

Reed Blankenship

Line: 6.5 Tackles and Assists (Under, -122)
Book: FanDuel
Projection: 6.33
Over: 44.66% (-10.68% EV)
Under: 55.34% (+3.46% EV)

Coming into the season, I felt like Reed Blankenship's 2024 snaps per tackle rate of 8.35 was unsustainable, but it dropped off more than I expected this season. His 10.53 mark this season in Vic Fangio's defense is more in line with an average safety, though his alignment details look very similar to last season. The Chiefs, who love to work in the short to intermediate, have been an above-average matchup for safety tackles, so I'm not going out of my way to play the under here, but I'd lean that way based on the projections.

Cooper DeJean

Line: 4.5 Tackles and Assists (Over, -155)
Book: BetMGM
Projection: 5.04
Over: 56.72% (-6.69% EV)
Under: 43.28% (-4.78% EV)

Per NextGenStats, the Eagles used nickel personnel on 82.2% of defensive snaps after Cooper DeJean took over as the starting nickel cornerback in Week 6, the second-highest rate in the league. In nickel, the Eagles allowed just 4.2 yards per play, which would be the fewest allowed by a defense over a whole season since 2018.

We've seen cornerbacks fall slightly below the league-average tackle rate against the Chiefs this season, but slot corners like DeJean are a bit different due to their alignment. They're closer to the ball, so they get more opportunities to run fill compared to their out-wide counterparts, and DeJean has shown a willingness to do so. I like him to go over this line, but there's no value at the current prices.

Darius Slay Jr.

Line: 4.5 Tackles and Assists (Over, +142)
Book: FanDuel
Projection: 4.62
Over: 49.05% (+18.7% EV)
Under: 50.95% (-18.17% EV)

You can see that Darius Slay is a coin flip to go over this line, but the plus-money price shows some expected value in the play. When I have an over lean on a cornerback, especially a perimeter cornerback like Slay, I like to explore the line and price for solo tackles as well. Due to their alignment, outside cornerbacks have a low assist rate relative to other positions. Most of their tackles come alone on the outside, and Slay is no different. This season, the league average solo tackle rate was 60%, but 81% of Slay's tackles were solo. If you like a pass-heavy game plan for the Chiefs, Slay o3.5 solo tackles (+132, DraftKings) is a solid look.

C.J. Gardner-Johnson

Line: 4.5 Tackles and Assists (Under, +112)
Book: DraftKings
Projection: 4.54
Over: 47.48% (-19.08% EV)
Under: 52.52% (+11.33% EV)

Shop this one if you have a lean because it's jumping back and forth between 4.5 and 5.5. You'll have to pay some juice on the under 5.5s, but it's still a solid shout. CJGJ topped 5.5 in just six of 19 games this season. He also finished eight games with two or fewer tackles, including a goose egg against the Packers in the Wildcard round. His projection gets a little help from last year's solid 11.0 snap per tackle rate, but his 2024 rate in Vic Fangio's defense has plummeted to 15.39, far outweighing anything from the past. Gardner-Johnson gets a little projection bump here because the Chiefs have been a good spot for safety tackle production, but he's still projecting as a good under look at his current price.

Nolan Smith Jr.

Line: 4.5 Tackles and Assists (Over, +130)
Book: DraftKings
Projection: 4.48
Over: 46.42% (+4.9% EV)
Under: 53.58% (-9.46% EV)

With Brandon Graham and Bryce Huff going down for the season in back-to-back weeks, a lot of pressure fell on the shoulders of Nolan Smith Jr., and he's responded. Smith Jr. has gone from a situational pass rusher, topping out at 35-40% of the weekly snaps, to a near-every-down player for the Eagles, and the production has followed. He's posted four sacks this post-season, and per PFF, his 15 playoff pressures are the second-most in the league. He's shown a solid tackles floor as well, and the Chiefs have been a slightly above-average matchup for defensive end tackle production this season. I lean slightly over on Smith Jr., even though the projection is right on the number.

Jalen Carter

Line: 3.5 Tackles and Assists (Over, +120)
Book: FanDuel
Projection: 3.68
Over: 50.19% (+10.41% EV)
Under: 49.81% (-14.6% EV)

Jalen Carter has been an absolute menace this season, and he's taken his play to another level during the Eagles' run to the Super Bowl. Despite being double-teamed on over 52% of his pass rushes in Philadelphia's three-game playoff run, Carter leads the NFL with 20 pressures this post-season. Unfortunately, that double-team rate keeps his sack and tackle production at bay. He's topped 3.5 tackles in just seven games this season, and his projection is getting a positive bump, with Kansas City giving up a high rate of tackles to interior defensive linemen. I think he's a better look for a sack (+116) than playing either side of his tackle line.

Quinyon Mitchell

Line: 3.5 Tackles and Assists (Under, -118)
Book: BetMGM
Projection: 3.18
Over: 39.29% (-21.42% EV)
Under: 60.71% (+12.16% EV)

You can basically take everything from the Darius Slay Jr. note above and apply it to Quinyon Mitchell. It's been an outstanding debut season for Mitchell, who jumped into a full-time role immediately as a rookie. He went under this line in 10 of 11 games from Week 5 to Week 17 but has gone over twice in three playoff games. If you like the over here, take o2.5 solo tackles (+101, DraftKings) and avoid this combined tackle and assist line.

Josh Sweat

Line: 2.5 Tackles and Assists (Over, +110)
Book: BetMGM
Projection: 2.68
Over: 50.06% (+5.13% EV)
Under: 49.94% (-15.62% EV)

Josh Sweat has been a lot more sack-or-bust compared to Nolan Smith Jr. this season, and that's not great news for Sweat since he's had just one sack in his past eight games. Sweat will also play fewer early-down snaps compared to Smith Jr., which hurts his chances of getting run-stopping tackles. That sort of usage leads to a wide variety of week-to-week snap rates, and we've seen Sweat fluctuate between 48 and 78% of the snaps in a given week. I'm projecting him for 65% of the snaps here, which is a tick about his season-long average. This is a pass for me, but I would lean under despite the projection.

Milton Williams

Line: 1.5 Tackles and Assists (Over, -145)
Book: BetMGM
Projection: 2.07
Over: 61.35% (+3.65% EV)
Under: 38.65% (-18.83 EV)

This is a stay away for me. Milton Williams, like most defensive linemen, sees a wide variety in his snap rate from game to game. I have him projected on the high side for this game at 60%. He has at least one tackle in 18 of his 20 games played but has yet to hit three tackles in a game this season. This is a low-upside play that would be painful to sweat.

Best Bets

Chamarri Conner (KC) Over 4.5 (-114, FanDuel)

Oren Burks (PHI) Under 9.5 (-139, DraftKings)

Chris Jones (KC) Over 2.5 (+136, FanDuel)

Zack Baun (PHI) Under 10.5 (-108, DraftKings)

C.J. Gardner-Johnson Under 5.5 (-165, FanDuel)

Trent McDuffie (KC) Under 4.5 (-133, DraftKings)

Nolan Smith Jr. (PHI) Over 4.5 (+130, DraftKings)

Darius Slay Jr. (PHI) Over 3.5 solo tackles (+132, DraftKings)

For the most up-to-date picks, check out my Twitter and subscribe to our Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.