Fantasy Upside
Adam Thielen started 2018 off absolutely on fire with eight straight 100-yard games. He also scored a touchdown in nine of his first 12 games. He proved his 2017 season wasn’t a fluke, and has now produced back-to-back 1,200+ years. He was also a receptions monster, hauling in 113 passes, which placed him fourth in the league. He had just three games below five receptions. All of that is to say Thielen is one of the most talented wideouts in the league right now.
Fantasy Downside
Thielen’s production dropped pretty heavy once Kevin Stefanski took over as the offensive coordinator. The Vikings have now made Stefanski full-time for 2019, so there’s clearly concern for Thielen heading into 2019. He went from averaging 7.9-95-0.69 in his first 13 games to 3.3-46-0.0 in his last three games. We mentioned in the upside section he had just three games below five receptions, well two of those games came under Stefanski. There’s a fear Minnesota will run the ball more often this season, which will obviously cut into Thielen’s 153 targets he had in 2018.
2019 Bottom Line
While there’s a real concern about a drop in production, a three-game sample size at the end of the year is hard to extrapolate into a full season. He should still near a 1,000-yard season, but he may not reach those 1,200-yard numbers he’s seen the last two years. While that may not seem like a whole lot, it makes a slight difference in his 2019 outlook. He’s still a great option, but he’s not the clear-cut WR1 he was for most of 2018. He’s more of a low-end WR1 or high-end WR2 choice.
