Adrian Peterson

Fantasy Upside

Two years after leading the NFL in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns, Adrian Peterson tore his meniscus in Week 2 last season and finished with just six carries for the entire year. Even though Peterson is 32, he didn't play in two of the past three seasons due to a suspension and injury. Theoretically, he should be fresher than a typical 32-year-old back and he's one Mark Ingram injury away from being a starter in New Orleans. Granted, he isn't the same back he used to be, but Peterson is drawing praise in training camp for the same combination of speed and power he flashed in Minnesota. If Ingram were to go down, Peterson could finish in the top 20 of fantasy scoring backs.

Fantasy Downside

Most 32-year-old running backs don't have top-20 fantasy seasons. Peterson is also sharing a backfield with Ingram, the starter, and Alvin Kamara, whom the Saints drafted in the third round this April. The Saints figure to score plenty of points and Sean Payton goes to great lengths to preserve Ingram throughout the season (Ingram has never had more than 226 carries in a year), but there will only be so many carries to go around. The Saints signed Peterson to a two-year, $7 million contract. That's not a huge commitment.

2017 Bottom Line

Peterson ranks as our RB33 for 2017 and is going early in the eighth round of 10-team leagues. (His ADP for 12-team leagues is 6.12.) Given the Saints depth chart, the fact he's 32 and doesn't catch many passes, fantasy owners will be rolling the dice that either a) Ingram goes down and opens the door for more touches for Peterson and/or b) Peterson has more juice than normal 32-year-old backs and he outperforms Ingram. There's a chance Peterson turns back the clock for one last season, but the more likely scenario is that he finishes in the RB30-40 range given how crowded the Saints backfield is heading into 2017.

Week 2 vs. Green Bay
Adrian Peterson was horrendous in Week 1, mustering 31 yards on 19 carries (1.6 YPC). Some people may be panicking, but it's way too early for that. Peterson will continue to get the ball, and his talent will prevail.

He'll face a Packers defense this week that didn't allow many yards to Jacksonville in Week 1, but that's more due to T.J. Yeldon not being good. We expect A.P. to get back to his RB1 self, making him a must-start option this week.

Fantasy Upside
Adrian Peterson finished as the No. 2 back in both fantasy formats last season after yet another dominating year. The Vikings lean on Peterson heavily, and it shows, as he was far and away the league leader in rushing attempts (327), which led to a rushing title.

He finished with 10-plus fantasy points in 11 games last season, which is consistency that’s typically hard to find. In addition, there have been no major changes with the team that would cause an alarm for a big drop off in production.

Fantasy Downside
Peterson is a 31-year-old back with nearly 2,400 carries in his career. He’s taken a lot of hits, and we typically see running backs start to decline once they hit that 30-year mark.

Peterson is also not a great receiving threat out of the backfield as he only finished with 30 receptions last year. Backup Jerick McKinnon could threaten Peterson’s workload considering he’s a talented, younger back.

Bottom Line
Peterson’s age may be a bigger concern if he didn’t play well last season, but considering he finished the year leading the league in rushing, it’s hard to doubt his production for 2016. He’s one of the league’s best backs in a system that loves running the ball. He should easily finish in the top five if he remains healthy.