Fantasy Upside
The upside case for Alvin Kamara is if he can be Alvin Kamara again. In 13 games last year, Kamara earned 180 carries and 86 targets. If you extrapolate that out to a 17 games season, you're looking at nearly 350 opportunities and 1,700 all-purpose yards. With those numbers, he could approach 300 PPR points which would vault him up into the Top 3 at the position.
Fantasy Downside
The downside, of course, is that the odds of Kamara actually playing 17 games are rather low. He's played 15 or fewer games in every season since his rookie campaign. That doesn't mean he can't be valuable, but managers are playing roulette with when those missed games will come.
2024 Bottom Line
Kamara is an excellent option at his current price tag. A lot of the risk with him missing time is built-in with Kamara's current ADP. If he manages to stay healthy, we could be looking at a league winning year for Kamara.