Fantasy Upside
It's been a while since we've seen Andrew Luck healthy and at his best; therefore, it's easy to forget just how good he was. In his last three healthy seasons, Luck finished fourth, second, and fourth among fantasy quarterbacks. Few quarterbacks have his upside in fantasy football.
Fantasy Downside
The downside for Luck is obvious. He missed all of last season with a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder and missed nine games in 2015 with chest and kidney injuries. If he suffers another setback in that throwing shoulder, there's no telling if the Colts will play him or sit him again.
2018 Bottom Line
Luck is the ultimate risk/reward pick among fantasy quarterbacks in 2018. His ceiling is a top-five quarterback, but the risk is disaster level. However, his ADP has the risk baked in this season, unlike previous years where it may have cost you a fifth-round pick to draft Luck. He is the 12th QB off the board with an ADP in the ninth round. That's reasonable.