Fantasy Upside
In his first season with the Raiders, Brown is clearly the team’s top receiver ahead of Tyrell Williams, J.J. Nelson, and rookie Hunter Renfrow. Last season, Jared Cook led the team with 101 targets and Jordy Nelson was second with 88 targets. Cook moved to New Orleans and Nelson retired. Brown should have a lot of opportunity because the Raiders lead the NFL in vacated targets, 359.
Fantasy Downside
Brown’s fantasy potential took a major hit when he moved from Pittsburgh to Oakland. Looking at last year alone shows a stark contrast between offensive schemes and overall production. Pittsburgh finished as the sixth-best team in points per game, 26.8, and Oakland finished as the fifth-worst team, 18.1 points per game. Pittsburgh had 713 passing attempts compared to Oakland’s 608 attempts. It doesn’t help Brown’s case that he downgraded from Ben Roethlisberger to Derek Carr.
Speaking of Carr, he might not have a lot of time to throw from the pocket. The offensive line ranked 26th in pass protection, per Football Outsiders, and they are projected to face the sixth most difficult pass rush schedule, per Warren Sharp. Carr averaged the least amount of time to throw in the NFL, 2.55 seconds per Next Gen Stats. It is also worth noting, Oakland will face the tenth most difficult wide receiver schedule, according to 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.
2019 Bottom Line
Brown is still a top tier route runner and should have plenty of opportunities but his fantasy floor is much lower with his new team. He can still finish as a top ten fantasy wide receiver but do not expect him to post WR1 numbers on a weekly basis like he did with the Steelers. Those days are behind him.