Fantasy Upside
Arian Foster is coming off a year in which he missed time with pre-season injuries, looked a step slow when he returned, then got shut down by back surgery after eight games. The back surgery was a disappointing development for fantasy owners counting on the star RB to continue handling the same massive workload for the Texans that he did the three previous seasons. Meanwhile, the Texans' backfield will have a different look under new HC Bill O'Brien. Ben Tate moved on to Cleveland, leaving Foster without a proven commodity to push him. In addition, the lack of a high-end QB all but ensures the Texans will be a run-first offense.
Fantasy Downside
Foster declared himself fully healthy in early April and said he had already been working out for two months. In turn, Foster was on the field for the start of OTAs on May 27 and worked without difficulty. "I'm fine," said Foster. "I got cleared." The concern, however, comes with Foster missing the first two weeks of training camp with a tender hamstring (which is not dissimilar to how he started last season).
Bottom Line
Should fantasy owners expect a comeback to the form that made him a top prospect in previous years? It's certainly within the realm of possibility. A fully healthy summer would have added to that. Instead, however, fantasy owners could benefit from a slight dip in ADP and the added value that goes with it.