Fantasy Upside
With quarterback Russell Wilson playing arguably the worst ball of his 12-year career in 2023, it was difficult for Courtland Sutton to find his footing, but he made up for his relative lack of yardage by finding the end zone ten times. With Jerry Jeudy now shipped out to Cleveland, there is no one even close to Sutton's level on the Broncos heading into 2024, which makes him one of the latest fantasy picks you're likely to see operating as he's team's WR1. Bo Nix had the highest adjusted completion percentage (85.9) among this entire draft class, so more "easy" targets around the line of scrimmage should give Sutton a nice floor as a WR3.
Fantasy Downside
This Broncos offense could be really, really bad. Currently projected for the third-lowest team total in the NFL. If Nix doesn't win the job, it will be between Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson to strap on the helmet in Week 1, which could be a death knell for Sutton's fantasy value, even if he is the clear-cut No. 1 option. Over 439 dropbacks last season, Zach Wilson ranked 35th in adjusted completion percentage (72.5), 37th in YPA (6.2), and 37th in on-target rate (70.0%).
2024 Bottom Line
Marvin Mims, Josh Reynolds, Troy Franklin, and Tim Patrick have no chance of dethroning Sutton as the Broncos' WR1. There's a good chance he actually builds upon the 18.7% target share and first-read rate (23.2%) he experienced last year, which both ranked around the WR40. We shouldn't expect many week-winning games, but he profiles as a solid WR3/4 fantasy option.