Fantasy Upside
Darren Waller was limited to just nine games last season in an injury-marred year with a struggling Raiders’ offense. While he had a strong 13.9 yards per reception in the games he did play, his volume was massively impacted by the arrival of Davante Adams, receiving just 4.8 targets per game, down from 8.5 in 2021. Waller was shipped off to the Giants, who could use a reliable target in the passing game outside of running back Saquon Barkley. The Giants have made quality fantasy targets out of tight ends in the past, and Waller should get ample opportunity to challenge to be the target leader in New York.
Fantasy Downside
Health has been an issue the past two seasons for the soon-to-be-31-year-old, and it’s possible we’re seeing Waller on the downside of his career. He’s now two full seasons removed from his elite 2020 season, and he finished just 10th (2022) and eighth (2021) in half-PPR fantasy points per game the past two years.
2023 Bottom Line
It’s possible Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll are able to revive Waller’s career as an elite fantasy tight end, but he’s no longer a sure bet for a full season of production. Fantasy managers should weigh the upside of his potential target share with the downside of his age and new environment carefully. Luckily, this is baked into his ADP, where our multi-site tool has him going in the middle rounds. We have him ranked fifth among tight ends, making him a potential steal at his current draft slot.