Fantasy Upside
The hiring of new HC Kliff Kingsbury and selection of QB Kyler Murray in April's draft will lead to considerable change, but getting David Johnson back to his 2016 level of production will be of great importance for the Cardinals. As ESPN.com pointed out, Johnson has averaged a 75% carry share and 17% target share in the 40 games since taking on lead-back duties in Week 13 of the 2015 season. But he needs to be put in a better position to excel. "He's a mismatch in space," Kingsbury said. "I can't wait for our offensive coaches to be able to get their hands on him."
Fantasy Downside
Texas Tech used multiple running backs in Kingsbury's years there, but the most catches a running back had in any season was DeAndre Washington's 41 in 2015 (and that was the fourth-highest total on the team). However, as AZCardinals.com's Darren Urban suggests, coaching at the NFL level can change things.
2019 Bottom Line
Right now, even with Larry Fitzgerald returning, Johnson could battle Christian Kirk to be the second-best pass catcher in a wide-open, pass-first Arizona offense. But again, the Cardinals are in the same spot with Johnson that they found themselves in 2017 and 2018: They need him to be great. Kingsbury has to create ways to make that happen. Either way, fantasy owners will need to expend high-end draft capital to find out if the new coach can pull it off. Our ranking of Johnson assumes the efforts will be a success.