David Johnson

Fantasy Upside

Johnson—obviously—will be a crucial component in new coordinator Mike McCoy's offense. Indeed, since arriving in Arizona as Bruce Arians' replacement, new head coach Steve Wilks has preached the gospel of the ground attack with Johnson as the focal point. And Johnson is clearly looking forward to that. Remember, entering 2017, the bulk of the Cardinals' offensive plans were built squarely around Johnson and what he brings to the table as a punishing runner and as an elite pass receiver. Those hopes were dashed after his season-ending wrist injury in Week 1, but Johnson's wrist is healed and he's anxious to play again. Beyond that, Johnson's stated goal of compiling 1,000 yards as both a rusher and receiver—while clearly lofty—isn't out of the question.

Operating behind a solid offensive line in 2016, Johnson fell 121 receiving yards shy of the 1,000/1,000 club. As NFL.com notes, transitioning from Arians' offense to new coordinator Mike McCoy's scheme, Johnson will also have to get used to running behind a fullback for the first time in his pro career. Expect him to adjust well.

Fantasy Downside

After injuries ravaged the blocking unit last season, Wilks now believes his revamped front line is the strength of the team. We'll find out about that soon enough and it will be a major factor for Johnson owners.

2018 Bottom Line

Even if there are questions at QB and along the offensive line, it certainly seems safe to assume McCoy is ready to ride Johnson as both a rusher and receiver. Will it be to the same degree that Arians did? As our ranking suggests, we expect that to be the case, especially in PPR formats given McCoy's relatively pass-happy offensive approach.

Fantasy Upside

The good news? Head coach Bruce Arians told reporters in March that David Johnson is "too young to overuse" and would like to get "30 touches" a game out of the dual-threat running back. The better news? Johnson agrees. In fact, he's eager to take on such a heavy workload. "I'm still young," Johnson said. "I'm still on my first contract. So I feel I can definitely handle 30 touches. I did it last year, basically, with running the ball and catching it out of the backfield." Indeed, Johnson carried the ball 293 times for 1,239 yards and 16 TDs, while adding 80 catches for 879 yards and four receiving touchdowns. As NFL.com notes, his 373-touch season broke down as such: 20 in Week 1; 15; 22; 21; 30; 25; 41 (with 33 carries); 17; 24; 29; 21; 27; 25; 16; 32; and 8 (he was injured early in the contest and did not return). If we toss out the final game, that's an average of 24.3 touches over 15 weeks.

Fantasy Downside

As Bleacher Report's Gary Davenport pointed out in a recent article, back in 2004, while examining the rebound potential of Ricky Williams, Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders crunched the numbers for every tailback in NFL history who carried the ball 370 times or more in a season and how they performed the following year. "These backs basically fall into three categories," Schatz wrote. "Guys who got injured the next year, guys who were never as good again, and guys who are Eric Dickerson." Don't be surprised if Johnson is closer to Dickerson than we've seen. Also, if the "Curse of 370" is your biggest concern, that's probably a positive in and of itself.

2017 Bottom Line

Even if expecting 30 touches every week is a reach, the offense continuing to run through Johnson is a given. He's demonstrated the ability to deliver high-end totals when given the opportunity. Draft accordingly. As in first overall.