Fantasy Upside
2016 seems like a distant memory when Carr led the Raiders to 12 wins and finished third place in AP MVP voting behind Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. It probably seems like a long time ago because the Raiders followed up their 12-win season with two atrocious years. They finished 2017 with six wins and 2018 with four wins. For better or worse, Jon Gruden returns in his second year as the head coach and the Raiders are looking to turn the corner.
Out with the old and in with the new. The starting skilled position players surrounding Carr has changed dramatically. The Raiders added wide receivers Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, J.J. Nelson, and Hunter Renfrow and rookie running back Josh Jacobs. Tight end Darren Waller, was with the team last year but he will take over as the starter because Jared Cook went to New Orleans. Carr is coming off a career-low 19 touchdowns and has a good chance to improve, as he will lean heavily on one of the best route runners in the league, Antonio Brown.
Fantasy Downside
The offensive line ranked 26th in pass protection, per Football Outsiders, and they are projected to face the sixth most difficult pass rush schedule, per Warren Sharp. Carr also averaged the least amount of time to throw in the NFL, 2.55 seconds per Next Gen Stats. He will need improved offensive line play to take advantage of the new offensive weapons. Taking a step in the positive direction may be a tall order because 4for4’s offensive line expert, Justin Edwards, has Oakland’s line ranked 20th and it doesn’t help that Richie Incognito is suspended for the first two games.
2019 Bottom Line
The Raiders averaged the fifth lowest number of points per game with 18.1. This number must increase dramatically for the team to stay competitive. Gruden could rely heavily on Carr because they will face a slew of high scoring offenses, including Kansas City, LA Chargers, Indianapolis, Chicago, Green Bay, and Houston. Carr’s fantasy numbers could benefit from frequently playing in negative game script situations against these high-powered offenses. Carr might be game scripted into attempting more passes but it may not matter if the offensive line does not give him enough time to throw. The Raiders improved their offensive weapons and it will be entertaining to see if Carr has developed any chemistry with his teammates on HBO’s Hard Knocks. Carr will face a middle of the pack, 16th easiest quarterback schedule, according to 4for4's schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed.
