Donte Moncrief

Moncrief returned to action last week and scored again. That makes seven touchdowns in his last nine games with Andrew Luck. His role as a primary red zone weapon makes him a solid start Week 9 against the Packers. Consider him a mid to low WR2/FLEX with high WR2 upside in a plus match-up.

Week 2 at Denver
Moncrief has now scored in six of the eight games he's played with Andrew Luck dating back to last year, after his 6-64-1 performance against the Lions last week. Facing Denver on the road is a different test though, as he was held to just three receptions for 30 yards and no touchdown against the Broncos last season. He's a borderline flex play this week, with the hope his red zone chemistry with Luck continues.

Fantasy Upside
Moncrief had it cooking with Andrew Luck in 2015, as he gets set to enter his 3rd NFL season and get Luck back in 2016. In seven games with Luck under center, Moncrief found the endzone five times. Moncrief scored 13.9 FP/G with Luck in 2015. That extrapolated out over 16 games would have moved Moncrief up from WR36 in PPR to WR20. It could have been even better too if the Colts didn’t have to play in a Monday Night Football monsoon in Carolina.

Fantasy Downside
Moncrief has essentially taken over Reggie Wayne’s old role in the offense as the outside receiver who will run many short and intermediate possession routes. That means it’s less likely he will produce chunk plays like he did a few times as a rookie (three 45+ yard touchdowns in 2014 versus zero 40+ yard receptions in 2015). That means red zone opportunities are likely crucial to Moncrief’s fantasy outlook, and savvy fantasy prognosticators know predicting touchdowns from year to year is extremely difficult. The Colts also spent a 2015 1st round pick on Phillip Dorsett, and entering his second season, that could eat into Moncrief’s targets, as the Colts look to get the speedster more involved.

Bottom Line
Moncrief is solidly inside our top-25 WRs in both standard and PPR, with room to reach that top-20 range he posted with Luck a year ago. Plus, given his ADP around the 6th-7th round turn in 12-team leagues, he presents great value, as he’s ranked ahead of a handful of WRs being drafted up to two rounds before him.