Heading into the 2013 season, many were hopeful that the arrival of head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Alex Smith would ignite Dwayne Bowe’s numbers. Instead, Bowe was one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy football. Bowe caught 57 passes for 673 yards, which were lower totals than he had in 2012 when the Chiefs went 2-14 and used hauntingly inept Brady Quinn at quarterback for a significant portion of the season. Still, the Chiefs went from the AFC West basement to the playoffs despite Bowe’s struggles and are pointed in a direction that could yield further offensive improvement. Should fantasy owners find a reason to believe or will Bowe burn them once again?
Fantasy Upside
In defense of Dwayne, it can take time to get immersed in a new system and develop harmony with a different signal caller. And if his play during the final stages of the 2013 season is any indication, the odds of Bowe being a disappointment will be slimmer in 2014. In Kansas City’s wild card loss to Indianapolis, Bowe caught eight passes for 150 yards and a touchdown. And while he had only five touchdowns during the regular season, three came after Kansas City’s bye in week 10. Chemistry with Smith ought to be less of an issue as the duo begins their second season together. His stock is depressed, so he should be available at a bargain rate compared to past years. By many accounts, he has made a better effort to come to camp in excellent physical condition. Although Bowe is not a number one receiver in the truest sense, he’s still the best Kansas City has to offer and will get the most targets among their wide receivers and tight ends.
Fantasy Downside
Last season, the Chiefs benefited from playing an easy schedule. They played three teams from the AFC South that had losing records and went 4-0 against the NFC East, where only Philadelphia finished on the plus side of the .500 ledger. This year, Kansas City will be playing the NFC West, which means battles with San Francisco, Arizona, St. Louis, and the world champion Seahawks are ahead. With Bowe being the top receiver on the Chiefs roster, he will be dueling with star cornerbacks like Arizona’s Patrick Peterson and Seattle’s Richard Sherman. They will also be playing the AFC East, which means Bowe will get the pleasure of squaring off with New England’s Darrelle Revis and Miami’s Brent Grimes. In division matchups with Denver, Bowe will have to match wits with Aqib Talib. If Bowe failed to post big numbers with an easy schedule, how well is he going to do when the going gets tougher? Jamaal Charles will remain the focal point of the Kansas City offense. Emerging tight end Travis Kelce might siphon off some targets. As if that wasn't enough, Bowe will miss the first regular season game. He was suspended for violating the league's substance abuse policy.
Bottom Line
In many ways, Bowe’s 2010 season remains a curse. He scored 15 touchdowns and has never been able to live up to expectations since that flash of brilliance. On the bright side, his value is low enough now that owners could land him as their WR4. If available at that rate, you could land a WR3 for a WR4 price. And even if Dwayne does not pan out as anything more than a WR4, he could be a reliable bench player.
