E.J. Manuel

The Bills traded up to select Sammy Watkins fourth overall last week, but Football Outsiders assistant editor Scott Kacsmar believes Watkins' success at the college level may not translate to the NFL.

Here's what Kacsmar writes on Watkins:

"To spend a top-five pick (and then some) on a wide receiver, he'd better be a special player. Watkins is not the type of athletic freak like Calvin Johnson capable of catching a jump ball in triple coverage, but who is? Watkins is not as polished with his route running or sure-handedness as Torry Holt or Larry Fitzgerald. Watkins is not an all-around threat like A.J. Green and Julio Jones. Those are most of the receivers who were worth a top pick."

Watkins gained 71.3 percent of his receiving yards after the catch at Clemson, numbers that Kascmar says compare to receivers like Tavon Austin or Percy Harvin -- talented in the short game and after the catch, but not necessarily big-play threats.

Watkins is a talented receiver, but he's no Calvin Johnson. He's joining a run-heavy offense with E.J. Manuel as his quarterback, so we're not terribly bullish on his potential production in 2014. He's currently going in the 6th round, which is a high price to pay for an unproven receiver in a run-first offense.