Fantasy Upside
Like the majority of the Cowboys' offense, Ezekiel Elliott is happy to see Dak Prescott back under center. Prior to Dak’s Week 5 season-ending injury, Elliott was seeing a minimum of 20 touches per game and collected 120-plus total yards in three of four contests. Zeke also saw at least six targets in three of five games Dak started and was on the field no fewer than 76.8% of Dallas’ offensive snaps. The 26-year old remains a dual-threat on offense and will have success behind a healthy offensive line and with a quadrant of receiving options keeping opposing defenses honest.
Fantasy Downside
His touch and yardage total changed with Andy Dalton and Ben DiNucci under center. And as much as it is easy to say injuries happen, another injury to Prescott would result in a shock to the Cowboys' offense. Elliott has also seen his yard per carry drop in three consecutive seasons. While YPC is not a dependable statistic year-over-year, it is a concern to see a mid-20's feature back declining. Zeke will also lose rushing and receiving downs to backup Tony Pollard. Elliott did not play Week 15 and Pollard took advantage, collecting 18 total touches with six coming through the air. Pollard’s nine targets in Week 15 were the third-most by a Cowboys running back in 2020. Pollard averaged 0.30 more yards per carry despite the same quarterback and offensive line issues. Elliott saw 143 more rushing attempts than Pollard last season, a concern for 2021. A lot of this would be solved by an improved Cowboys defense. Dallas’ strength of schedule is concerning as well. The Cowboys' offense as a whole has four games against top-five defenses according to 4for4’s Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed. They also have one more against a top 10 unit. Zeke has seven games against top 10 rushing units.
2021 Bottom Line
The return of Dak Prescott and the majority of the Cowboys starting offensive line provides hope for Elliott, but a difficult schedule, elite passing options, and one of the best handcuff running backs in fantasy lurk as caps to his ceiling. Zeke projects as an RB1 with the upside to be one of, if not the top fantasy running back in 2021.