Fantasy Upside
Jarvis Landry caught 72-of-101 targets for 840 yards (11.7 Y/R) and three touchdowns, finishing as WR40 in half-PPR points per game. Landry had finished as WR23 and WR27 in his previous two years with the Browns. This range looks like Landry’s upside as he enters his age-29 season. Playing in a run-heavy offense with several weapons, it’s going to be difficult for Landry to reach this level unless there is an injury to a marquee player on the Browns. For example, if OBJ were to miss time, a plausible scenario given his return from a torn ACL, Landry would immediately slot in as the team’s WR1 and see a bump in targets. We could also see the Browns increase their passing volume if Nick Chubb got injured, which would benefit Landry. We should note that he came into the 2020 season coming off offseason hip surgery, so there’s a chance that this suppressed his production.
Fantasy Downside
Landry is one of those players who can be considered a floor pick with a narrow range of outcomes. This isn’t a wide receiver who is going to ascend past the low-tier WR2 range in terms of fantasy production. At the same time, he’ll still play a significant role in the Browns’ offense, so there’s not as much risk with Landry falling off and becoming a WR4 who acts as a depth piece for your fantasy team. The worst-case scenario is that the Browns play extremely run-heavy and are only able to support one fantasy-relevant wide receiver, which would likely be OBJ.
2021 Bottom Line
Landry is a floor pick who can help add stability to your roster, especially if you targeted high-upside wide receivers like CeeDee Lamb and Chase Claypool with your earlier draft picks. Currently being drafted as WR46 (92.7 ADP), Landry is being selected at his floor, which makes him a solid value. But due to his lack of upside, it’s important to consider your roster construction before targeting him. If you already have wide receivers like Adam Thielen and JuJu Smith-Schuster, it’s not a good idea to go after Landry because you already have two floor picks with narrow ranges of outcomes. Landry looks like a player on the WR3/4 fringe heading into the 2021 season.