Fantasy Upside
Jarvis Landry has been Ryan Tannehill’s favorite target. His 166 targets in 2015 were 6th in the NFL, very much raising his floor. His 110 receptions tied for 4th in the NFL, behind only Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins. Landry’s touchdowns could also increase from a disappointing four in 2015. That’s because it was a surprisingly low total, considering Landry was tied for 7th in the NFL with 23 red zone targets. Compare that to A.J. Green and Allen Robinson who had 22 and 21 red zone targets, respectively; Green caught seven red zone touchdowns and Robinson caught 12 red zone touchdowns. New head coach Adam Gase has also been a boon to receivers in fantasy (see Alshon Jeffery, Demaryius Thomas, and Emmanuel Sanders). Landry was a top-15 WR in standard leagues and top-10 in PPR in 2015.
Fantasy Downside
Landy’s upside is capped in standard leagues, as his 10.5 yards per reception was historically low in 2015 for a WR with 110 receptions. It was only the 7th time in NFL history a player averaged less than 11 yards per reception while catching at least 110 passes. The evolution of DeVante Parker in the offense could take targets away from Landry too, which are crucial to him considering his career 9.9 yards per reception, meaning he needs more targets to be as fantasy relevant as other receivers.
Bottom Line
Landry still feels like a safe bet to produce at least WR2 production in 2016, but take note of the difference between our rankings for standard and PPR leagues on Landry. Top-20 WR in PPR and a WR3 in standard, according to our projections. That makes his 4th round ADP justifiable in one scoring format but not the other.